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Weekly Outlook, 7-16

|Includes: AZN, GES, GMCR, LLY, NRG, SHOO, True Religion Apparel, Inc. (TRLG)

 Sorry I haven't updated the blog the last couple weeks. Summer is the only time of year when I don't get to it every weekend because of various commitments and vacations. Anyways, I'm back. My bullishness towards the end of June proved well-founded, as it preceded a 6% jump in the market. I realized as I left that I needed to cash out of Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca, as they are the two worst members of the big pharma industry. They were both value traps. Now I'm down to TRLG, NRG, and GES in the model portfolio. I've been very satisfied with True Religion, but Guess' insider sales are worrying me. I plan to look into it this week and publish a report sometime soon. If it is that worrisome, I may sell. 

I'm looking to move into high-growth stocks. I think this will be more profitable, and simpler. I will trade with tight stops using momentum-based technical analysis, combined with in-depth fundamental analysis. My short list right now (among many others) is Oracle, Green Mtn. Coffee, Whole Foods, Steve Madden, Cliffs Natural Resources, Devry, and Aflac.
In the meantime, I have a significant cash position. I don't think it would be bad to have some cash going into this fall, at least until the government figures out the debt limit. This is not to mention the reputation that September and October have in the minds of every investor I know. If the U.S. gets downgraded (which S&P threatened on Thursday), then cash will once again be king, and opportunities will abound. On a monthly basis the market needs to see a lot more consolidation before we can once again move higher above 1400. I'm not very bullish right now, and I'd expect next week to be pretty grisly. I may try to cash out of some of my Guess stake early in the week, if I have time to do the necessary research beforehand.