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Weekly Outlook, 7-30

|Includes: CLF, GES, NRG, SAN, SHOO, True Religion Apparel, Inc. (TRLG)
My worries were everyone's this week. The market had a rough week, down almost 4% in five days of trading. The model portfolio, however, was only down 1% on the week mainly due to an extraordinary performance by True Religion after reporting blockbuster 2Q results Friday. The shares were up 9.2% on the week, and had a weighted impact of 2.3% on my portfolio. GES was down again, which was frustrating. It's beginning to look like those shares will be in the doldrums for the rest of the year, but I can wait. NRG is in consolidation, which is fine by me. It was nice to see CLF pullback practically 10% this week, and I'm considering entering a position early next week, however; I'd like to wait for a default to be avoided. SHOO bottomed Friday, but I have no available cash to enter a position because I bought shares of STD as a trade on support at $10. 
 
Despite the market's lack of trend this summer, it was only in this last week that volatility skyrocketed 44% to the highest weekly close since September of 2010. This is also a sign that people are worried. The other major signs are coming out of the CDS [Credit Default Swaps] & futures markets, which I don't follow. My worry from last week has become anger at our government, because this is entirely their fault. With the S&P currently at 1293, I see support between 1275 and 1265. Even now, and especially if we drop below there, I think we're looking at a head-and-shoulders pattern which would mark a long-term top in the market. I would exit my trades [STD], and move to short ETFs or cash. That being said, my optimism isn't yet totally shattered. We'll just have to wait and see.