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Market Outlook for the week of March-8-2010

|Includes: DIA, ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (SPXU), SPY, UPRO

This week was an interesting one for the financial markets. The S&P 500 gapped up and out of its previous trading range of 1085-1115 and then proceeded to make a big move upwards on Friday despite mediocre jobs data.

Looking at the technical analysis of the S&P,$spx , we see that the RSI is nearly at 70. Since the RSI for the S&P barely ever goes above 70, this is a very bearish indicator. However, the RSI is not yet at 70, it is at 66.04. This would suggest that this next week, disregarding any possible news, the market will go up for one or two days until the RSI hits 70, and then there will be some downturn or consolidation.

The S&P will probably go up into the high 1140s or low 1150s, and I believe this will happen in the first half of the next week, and then the sell-off will begin in earnest.

Since the market low about a year ago, trend lines at the top of the market have progressively planed off to a point where to continue this trend the new market high would be at the previous one, 1150.

How quickly the market turns after the likely up-tick Monday is questionable. It may puddle along for a few days before the sell-off begins, or the sell-off may begin as early as Thursday or Friday.

Happy Investing!


I am currently long the 3x S&P 500 ETF UPRO, but plan to watch it closely this week and probably sell Tuesday or Wednesday and buy the -3x S&P 500 ETF SPXU

Disclosure: UPRO