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Market Update, 3-9

|Includes: DIA, DOG, QQQ, SPXU, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), UPRO

     As expected, the market rose over the first two days of this week. Monday the market showed much less certainty than I expected, which was very bearish. However, Tuesday, the market seemed bullish and went up .6%, only to crash down to -.1%, and finish up .2%. Overall, this uncertainty is very telling.

     It is very minimal and hard to distinguish looking at a chart, but there is some resistance for the S&P 500 at 1145. The main resistance comes at 1150. Today, the market came up to this resistance point and was not able to break above it. This is bearish. However the market still ended up for the day.

     Also of note are the stochastics, which have almost definitely peaked. The RSI has also come close enough to 70 that a turn around should be expected quite soon.

     In conclusion, it looks as if today was the market's top for this uptrend. It may consolidate and try to break the 1150 mark, but I doubt it will. The question will become how far the market will fall. It should see support at 1131, then at 1118, after that at 1085, and if it gets really bad there should be support at 1050.

     I believe that the market should either move sideways or down tomorrow. It could move up into the high 1140s or low 1150s, but if it does that will almost definitely be the end of the upswing. The stochastics turned south today, and the RSI planed off.

     If we do not see a turn-around tomorrow, it will come on Thursday, and at the least we will see downwards movement by the end of the week. The world doesn't know it yet, but this rally is over.

Disclosure: none