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Market Outlook for Week of 3-29

|Includes: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), DOG, SH, SPY

      This week was it. The market is turning. It may take a little while longer, and I won't pretend to know if the turn downwards will happen this upcoming week, but it's coming soon. Thursday the Dow formed a gravestone doji, a very bearish candlestick formation. Friday the 19th, the dow traded down on very high volume. This last week the market continued upwards, but showed much more indecision than would be necessary to dictate the continuation of the trend. Also, indicators are showing a turn. Market breadth has dropped off significantly, suggesting that the market's current run-up is not including all participants. Also, 25-day new highs have practically evaporated. Volatility [the VIX] broke out of it's up trend-lines in the 12, 3, 5 daily stochastic, suggesting a future significant move upward. I don't know what will trigger the massive sell-off that the market has coming, but here are a few thoughts.

     This last week, the Wall Street Journal commented on the lack of demand for treasury debt in auctions. What would be more terrifying than the fed raising rates to curb inflation? Here's your answer: The fed raising rates because they have to in order to sell their debt. This could spark a major sell-off. Also, jobs data will be reported thursday and friday of next week. Depending on how this goes, it could spark a sell-off, or one last cough up. We'll have to wait and see. Whenever the market turns, the symbols are starting to flow in of a market top at 1180 [S&P 500]. I'm not taking a stake in this one, but I'd say there's a pretty good likelihood that the market is very near a top. 

Happy Investing,


Disclosure: none