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Longview, 4-24

|Includes: DIA, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), ONEQ, SPY

I have mentioned the secular bear market model  in my longer-term outlook over the last couple months. Although the initial collapse of prices was not as long this recession as it is in the model, it is still valid. There are many people who believe we are in a secular bear market, and the flat stock prices over the last decade would support that. The time factor of the collapse didn't support the model, but the S&P did fall 58%, very close to the 56% the model suggests. If we are to then project this forward, we will give the time less consideration, but some nonetheless. We will focus on the 71% run-up that is expected. Since prices fell slightly further than the model, it would be expected that they would rise slightly further. The S&P is already up 80% since the bottom. If we combine this with the run away idea supposed earlier this week, which would suggest maybe another month at most of running up, we are looking at a grim long-term horizon. For the S&P & Russell, & Nasdaq, if we follow the run away model, the market would top this month. For the Dow, it would top next month. This changes how I'm going to position my portfolio. My moves will have to be short and quick. I will take out short-term long positions to try to capture a little more of the ride to the top, but not for more than a couple weeks at MOST. After that, I'll watch for a top, and then consider selling the market short. This is a time to be very vigilant, because the bull is going wild.

Disclosure: none