Today SPY gapped up significantly, and closed very close to the 200-day EMA. This represents a big resistance point. Chances are that the market will either have another strong day tomorrow and close solidly above the 200-day EMA in the SPY 110-122.5 range, or the market will recede from this resistance and test support in the 106-108 range. If the market closes above the 200-day EMA, then that will indicate that the base formed earlier this week and the up-segment has begun. If it goes back down to support, that will indicate that the base is still forming. Considering the amount of buying pressure, especially towards the end of the day today, a move upwards is more likely. However, the 200-day EMA is looking very foreboding right now. It is the crucial point.