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Review/Preview, 6-4

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

      The market took a very bearish approach today that got me stopped out of my position for a small loss. The market created a very bearish candlestick formation on Wednesday-Friday of  this week. First showing strong bullish sentiment and then neutral Thursday finally ending with very bearish sentiment after the jobs data on Friday. This proved that the up segment hasn't started yet. The base is still forming. On the weekly chart, it looks like the down segment has definitely ground itself into dust. The volume left this last week, even as the market continued to drop. Unlike the bottom in early February which was a quick, clearly-defined base, this one looks longer and choppier. This could mean that when the up segment begins it will have more fuel. My current projection for this up segment is somewhere between $SPX: 1215 [double top formation] - 1275 [based on trend line].  I got stopped out today and plan to re-enter if SPY breaks up above the resistance at 1105, which should be a very low-risk entry point.

     Another technical aspect showed up today that reinforced my belief in the weakness of the uptrend. For the first time since August, the 13-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA.



Disclosure: none