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Weekly Outlook, 9-10

|Includes: APFC, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA), SPY

 Starting last weekend I've started to see signs of the instability of the current up segment. Volume has dropped off significantly. The gains are becoming smaller. Resistance at $SPX 1105 was broken after a potential top formation was formed at the resistance. Now the new resistance seems to be at the top of the 8/10-8/11 gap. Chances are this too will be broken next week. I had this drilled in to me this spring: uptrends can teeter on the brink of collapse for a long time before they finally collapse. Another maxim I've heard time and again is to not bet against the trend. Heeding my [expensive] learning and this advice, I'm not betting against this trend. It sprouted from a very solid island bottom, and I trust that. Right now I'm suspicious, but I'm holding on.

I got stopped out of APFC today. My creeping suspicion that it would collapse back down to $4 is seeming to be correct, as today at 3:32 APFC finally broke through support at $4.37 down to $4.22. I got stopped out at $4.25. I'm probably going to look into buying back in around $4.1 or $4.05. MFA was down today, but I'm waiting out a hopeful break through down trendline resistance to create the last bit of a cup-and-handle pattern. Hopefully this will pan out as planned. My bullishness has yet to be derailed.


Disclosure: Long MFA