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Weekly Outlook, 9-18

|Includes: APFC, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA), NLY, SPY

 The action of this week in the market mimicked a previous week. On the week of 8-2, the market gapped up to resistance at 1131. It moved up Monday after the gap, down Tuesday, up Wednesday, and down Thursday & Friday. The exact same pattern, at the same price as this week. The next move was a gap up to resistance the next Monday, and then a move down Tuesday precipitating an 8% move downwards. What will be telling is Monday. If the market moves up and then goes sideways all day on very light volume, and then Tuesday there is a move downwards on higher volume, that will seal it. If this doesn't happen, then there will probably be a breakout next week above resistance. This would be a good low-risk entry point for a short-term leveraged long position in the S&P 500.

I'm currently holding APFC & MFA. I got stopped out of NLY accidentally this week, which was frustrating. I'm not going to waste the opportunity however. Since I'm thinking there might be a move downwards next week, I'm going to hold onto the cash for a few days to see what I could do with it short-term.

Disclosure: Long APFC, MFA