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Tracking Value Line Timeliness Rank - Part 4.

Summary

This is the fourth blog attempting to judge the effectiveness of the Value Line Timeliness Ranking.

Search for stocks with Value Line Rankings of Safety=1, Timeliness=1, Financial Strength= A or better.

Presented are total returns.

*New* Morningstar Portfolio Manager.

My intent is to determine whether the Timeliness Rank is useful to me.

At the suggestion of Bob Wells in a comment thread, I started tracking the Value Line Timeliness Rank performance vs SPY. The December 30, 2018 list and subsequent changes are presented below. The column headings are:

  • Ticker, Company Name
  • Timeliness Added Date - Date the ticker Timeliness was changed to 1.
  • Timeliness Removal Date - Date the ticker Timeliness was changed from 1.
  • Days on the List - Number of days Timeliness stayed at 1.
  • Start Date Price - if purchased at closing, price paid for 1 share.
  • Current Price - Price as of the date removed, or May 24, 2019.
  • Return w/o Dividends - Return without dividends reinvested, dates above.
  • SPY Return - SPY return for the same dates above.

The Value Line Timeliness Rank is defined here:

Value Line - Value Line University

I used the Dividend Channel calculator for the returns. For stocks still on the list I used closing prices for May 24, 2019. For stocks removed from the list I used the closing price for the date of removal.

In the spreadsheet below, Green indicates the return 'winner', Red indicates the return 'loser', for the period.

In Part 4, I changed the following:

  • Corrected the ‘Start Date Price’ and return columns for DIS. (minimal effect).
  • Corrected the ‘Start Date Price' for WRB, adjusted for split.

Morningstar Portfolio:

Using Morningstar's Portfolio Manager, I input buy/sell transactions from the above table into a Portfolio according to the following rules:

  • Buy on the date a stock is added to the list using closing price for that day.
  • Sell on the date removed from the list using closing price for that day.
  • No dividend reinvestment.
  • Purchase whole shares up to $1,000 investment for each stock.
  • This is NOT an actual portfolio.

Below shows the performance of this portfolio according to Morningstar Portfolio Manager:

The Portfolio holdings are shown below. Shares held, 0.00, indicate all shares sold.

Observations

  • One thing that bothers me is a stock on the list, then off, then back on. JNJ was on the list from 11/2/2018 until taken off 1/18/2019, 77 days. JNJ then rejoined the list on 2/22/2019, after 35 days, only to be removed again on 3/29/2019 after 35 days. Similar to CHD, although it is still on the list.
  • I may change the criteria and only sell, in the fake portfolio, when Timeliness changes from 2 to 3. This suits my style better and may provide a little momentum after purchase.
  • The team is still debating changes.(the team are the voices in my head!)
  • Any suggestions are welcome.