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CNOA the quiet AG monster that could go up 6 fold!

|Includes: China Organic Agriculture, Inc. (CNOA), YONG

 CNOA isnt a household chinese stock name for US investors.  They have had a checkered history of not being able to file their 10-Q on time each qtr, but they always file within the 7 day extension and their financial details are very extensive.

They are in the business of agriculture product trading, essentially a trading operation or a distribution business model.  They do own some products which they distribute including Acai berry product acquisition.  

there are 73m shrs outstanding, they have book value of $94.5m so book is $1.30 per share.  they made 3c this past qtr although if you back out the increase in receivable reserves (they obviously are conservative!) then you would have made 6c for the qtr or possible 24c annual run rate eps.  all that is fine, but we all know we want to know the companies true EPS power is cash generation.  are they making real money?  not accounting money.  YES.  they generated $1.5m net cash from operations this qtr including adding to working cap for receivables and inventories in front of their seasonally strong period.  in addition, their inventories of $53m are conservatively valued in that pricing has gone up alot in recent weeks.

This qtr 6c is nice but given the wild swings in ag prices and products, one would think the company can shine in the qtrs ahead as they can take advantage of the higher prices by "trading" better.

I see 40c stock with 44c gross cash per shr and the rest of the balance sheet if liquidated would be worth up to 80c net to investors..

you have very little downside if at all and upside would be if they get it going and the stock on 25c eps annual could be $2.50 stock or 6 bagger

worth a spec position in my view


Disclosure: long cnoa