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Weekly Fundamental Analysis & The Week Ahead



UK consumer confidence as surveyed by Gfk came in at -18, far better than the -24 expected and showing continued improvement from the -22 previously

Japanese industrial production for July came in better than expected month-on-month, expanding 0.3% vs. expectations of a 0.2% contraction.

The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% despite the economy adding another 17,000 jobs a tad less than the expected 20,000

Euro-zone unemployment remained at its high of 10.0% in August.

Canadian GDP for Q2 came in weaker than expected at 2.0% annualised missing forecasts for 2.5%.

US consumer confidence rose in August to 53.5 beating expectations for 50.7.

Australian GDP for Q2 came in better than expected quarter-on-quarter at 1.2% vs. forecasts of 0.9%.

Euro-zone PMI manufacturing came in at 55.1 for August, marginally beating expectations for 55.0

US ISM manufacturing came in at 56.3 beating expectations for 52.8 and rising from the prior reading of 55.5.

Swiss GDP for Q2 came in at 0.9% quarter-on-quarter beating forecasts of 0.8% the year-on-year figure also beating expectations of 2.8% coming in at 3.4%.

Euro-zone GDP for Q2 came in a 1.9% year-on-year beating expectations of 1.7%, the quarter-on-quarter reading matched economist forecasts for 1.0%.

The European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.00% as was widely expected.

US change in Non-Farm Payrolls came in better than expected at -54K a much less severe drop than the forecast -105K.

The Week Ahead

After a multi-day rally kicked off the month of September and data out of the US was either not as bad as expected or better than expected we could see the relief rally continue into next week, fueled by the NFP result late Friday. However, the slump in crude prices does indicate that some investors still dont feel that the recovery has taken hold and therefore oil prices remain at the low end of their recent range. Early next week investors will watch the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions. With Bank of England and Bank of Canada rate decisions mid-week to provide some volatility perhaps in currency markets, tier one data out of the Euro-zone and the US is thin, leaving traders with larger macro issues to focus on. In the past when their has been little data to impress traders sentiment has often waned and most asset classes lost ground, however, it remains to be seen going into the next week of trade if the momentum from this past week can keep things moving higher.

Written by Jonathan Granby, Analyst for Binary Option Strategy

Disclosure: none