The S&P has been stuck in a range for almost two weeks and it was surprising there were no big bets ahead of the monthly employment numbers on Friday. We will have to wait until Monday to see how the markets react to the report, since the markets are closed on Friday.
Range trading prevailed again today, as the market cannot make a substantial break either way. Pivot points are a good way to trade markets a rangebound market like this and there were some good signals today.
The first signal came early in the day and it was a hard trade to take. I’m sure most traders were looking for a breakout day, but there was no follow-through and the early rally fizzled. I tend to use 2-point stops most of the time and the market did not hit the stop on this trade.
The next pivot trade came around 2:45 as the market became very oversold and hit the S1 pivot. You have to take these support pivot trades in this market, especially when there is an extreme oversold reading. Some traders may be wondering why you wouldn’t take the trade at the PP around 1:50 EST. I normally tend to pass on a setup where the market pulled up just shy of a pivot earlier in the day. Sometimes they work, but normally they blow right through them on the second shot.
I still stick by my opinion that stocks are over extended and I would expect a reversal next week. I might be looking for an opportunity to sell an early morning rally, especially if it is extreme.
Disclosure: no stock positions