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Don't Follow Leaders, Watch Your Parking Meters

On July 1 & 2, as the market hit it's lowest level of the year, I had the following exchange with a seekingalpha author:
Author's Post
The market tried to clean this mess up before - it wasn't allowed to - now it's going to take care of business the hard way. Catch ya on the other side of 600, S&P!
Jul 01 02:51 PM
My comment
This is the polar opposite of being a contrarian, it is momentum investing. Sentiment is mostly bearish now. Contrarians are covering shorts and buying stocks right now, not shorting.
Jul 02 02:01 PM

Author's post
I'm not always interested in being contrarian - I'm interested in being RIGHT. Look back to 2008 - stocks suffered their biggest losses when sentiment was predominantly bearish and they were ALREADY oversold.
We're just getting started here - there will be rallies of "hope" interspersed in this wicked decline. I have no interest in playing the intermediate term rallies. I got short at the bullish extreme, and I'll stay short until the bearish extreme. We are a long way from that right here.
Jul 02 02:35 PM
This blogger KNEW the S&P was going to drop below 600 this year. I did not add the CAPs, those are direct from the author. Is the point of this just to gloat about being right while the arrogant blogger was so wildly off? Yes, that is the primary point, however there is a secondary one. This investor committed the most cardinal of all investing sins, arrogance. The most important thing I have learned from a couple of decades of investing is how little I know. No one knows the future, which is subject to geopolitical events, natural disasters, the uncovering of scandals, and speculative bursts of momentum in either direction. 
Since the date of this above conversation, the market has gone on a blistering rally. Not only has this blogger missed the rally, he has been leveraged short the market...ouch. Hopefully, no one has taken these writings as such gospel that they have made investment decisions based on the projections presented as inevitable. 
I find it humorous that each year, panels will be asked where the various indices will end the year. If 100 interviewees are questioned, at least 99, probably all 100, will be wrong. The only correct is answer is "I don't know". The most thoughtful responses will outline how they will structure their investments given that the factors impacting results are variable. 
It is more important that an investor have a systematic approach to managing their investments rather than trying to predict which stocks will perform the best or where the indices will be at a certain point in time. At the core of the system should be the understanding that the future contains many uncertainties, and you are therefore subject to mistiming transactions. Cost averaging, stepping into and out of positions, weighting, and other statistical methods are appropriate ways to manage a portfolio. 
By way of mention, the authors on seekingalpha tend to have a net bearish bias (and that's coming from me, one who at times has been accused of being a permabear). If you took your advice from SA, you would be perpetually short the market and putting equities, which is a pretty good recipe for pain.