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when perception of reality bifurcates

Usually markets are in disagreement about what is going to happen tomorrow. I think right now people agree on what's going to happen: companies to keep beating numbers on easy comps, fed treasury purchases to end next week, fed rate rises by 4Q, tighter fiscal / monetary policy in Asia ex Japan

What investors disagree about is what's happening today, and maybe even yesterday. Sure I guess this is always the case with China, but I'm seeing it in semis (double ordering vs inline with rising demand), and I mean seriously how did the Fed / BoE manage to convince so many people that turning off the printing press will have no effect??


Investors perception of reality is literally bifurcating

I distinguish this from the context where investors disagree on the future because I come to two conclusions

(1) you can make money from being in line with consensus

(2) I wouldn't get to beholden to a view right here because paradoxically what determines which 'reality' is most in force is short term momentum in the market



Disclosure: long s&p 500