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PayPal: Keeps Paying Off

|About: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
Summary

Strategic partnerships are helping to drive demand across PayPal.

The company should continue to record double digit revenue growth.

PayPal still holds a commanding lead in the mobile payments industry.

PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) posted solid earnings in the second quarter. In fact, the company again delivered double digit revenue growth and for the first time exceeded $3 billion in a single quarter.  PayPal has succeeded in growing its base and increasing customer engagement across several products. By meaningfully improving the core experiences and expanding their suite of products, PayPal was able to process $106 billion in payment volume exceeding 100 billion in quarterly TPV for the first time. In the second quarter, the company continued to make excellent progress with partnerships.  Will growth carry on in the third quarter? We believe so. Now let’s talk about what investors should expect in the future. 

Revenue

In the second quarter, PayPal saw revenue growth of 18% to $3.136 billion.  This was the result of an 18% increase in both transaction revenue and revenue from other value-added services. Transaction revenue growth was primarily driven by the core PayPal and Braintree businesses. Furthermore, revenue from other value-added services was predominantly driven by credit.  For the third quarter, we are predicting revenue at $3.175 billion or 18% higher compared to 2016.  In the upcoming earnings report, we expect to see improved account engagement growth that should continue to accelerate revenue.

Mobile

At this time, management remains focused on providing the best mobile experience possible.  This strategy has paid off with approximately 34% of payment volume from a mobile device. In addition, mobile payment volume increased 50% over the same period last year to about $36 billion.  Venmo, the company's social payments platform, processed $8.0 billion of TPV, growing 103% over the same period last year.  Right now, over 60 million consumer accounts are One Touch enabled, along with merchant acceptance at 5.5 million. In the third quarter, we expect to see payment volume from mobiles devices increase by 36% and mobile payment volume growth to stay around 50%. 

Strategic Partnerships

On the conference call, management focused on recently announced partnerships, with the latest including Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), Samsung Pay, Android Pay, Chase (CCF), Citi (C), and Baidu (BIDU). We believe these strategic partnerships are broadening the relevance of PayPal's platform and increasing PayPal's addressable market.  Clearly, the Baidu partnership has a lot of potential. With this deal, PayPal is tapping into the Chinese consumer marketplace. PayPal will be able to offer international merchants access to millions of consumers in China who are using Baidu and Baidu Wallet. For years to come, we anticipate this partnership will drive demand over the PayPal platform.

New Accounts

This quarter, PayPal increased its active accounts to 210 million, a 12% increase year over year. We think new accounts will continue to grow to 216 million by next quarter, increasing 12.5% year-over-year. This quarter the number of active accounts increased by 6.5 million from 2016, the highest number of new accounts added in a single quarter since July 2015. With PayPal leveraging partnerships to offer account holders more choices than ever before, we think the company will see a boost in overall engagement.

Conclusion

The third quarter earnings report for PayPal is due on October 18. Following earnings results, the stock price increased 4 times out of the last 7 quarters with the average reaction at 4%. Currently, the stock price stands at $59.62, which is almost 3% lower than the 52 week high of $61.30 reached on July 27. The decrease in price is normal as the stock is being pushed down by profit taking after the positive earnings report.  Investors should consider taking a position once a new breakout is confirmed.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in PYPL over the next 72 hours.