Just before midnight on 6/27/13 after just watching August Gold trade down to just under 1180 and then move back above 1200, I called a bottom in gold and wrote an article to go long gold on Friday 6/28/13 that you can read here. If you read the comments section of that article you will see that on 7/1/13, I got out on the $82 rally and was looking for a retest to something close to 1200 again. Well, on Friday we got down to 1207.40 and closed 1212.70, so I bought again at 1208.80 (very, very, small position) and sold out half at 1220 late in the day.
Some were saying to put in stops at 1225 and trying to hold long for higher prices. I was convinced the negative sentiment was so strong that 1225 stops would for sure be violated. It was. So now what?
50/50 chance the low of 1180 holds
When we made a low of 1321 in April (June Gold contract), the first time it was retested, it held. I feel that there is at least a 50/50 chance we hold above 1180 on the first retest, and we might even have a low just above or slightly below 1200 Sunday night. Some are saying because not all the traders were back from holiday on Friday, selling will resume in earnest Sunday night, but I don't believe we will be that weak. As I mentioned in my last article, one must play very small and be able to hold through a move to 1000, as it may require doing so if one gets long around 1200. Play so small that you can hold through a 200 dollar further sell-off and you should be fine catching this falling knife. Another important bottom, mentioned by Ms. Louise Yamada on Fast Money Friday (click here for video), is 1155. I will be buying more should we hit 1155 and again at 1120. I do not see us moving below 1110 to 1125 in the short term, without first retesting 1300 to 1325. I like the contrarian gold call on Friday of Carter Worth (check out video here). Carter is now calling for a bottom in gold and I am impressed with that call since the last two calls he made were very timely sell or short gold calls that turned out to be right on the money. Carter Worth mentions how we are too far below the 100 day moving average and need to correct back up. Could the sentiment be any more negative? Whereas it was scary buying gold in the 1300s in April, I am fearless buying gold at 1220 and below, and will relish the opportunity to buy in the 1160 area or lower, because if we do break the 1180 support area, the next countertrend rally should be 150 dollars back up, similar to the 166 dollar rally we got after the April smackdown. By Wednesday of this coming week, I will be looking to get aggressively long gold. Any damage the bears can muster should be exhausted by the end of Tuesday's trade, and possibly much sooner. I will be playing very small and enjoying the bounce!
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