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Trading High Probability.com 05.04.10 Kicker - Bull Run is Over

|Includes: DIA, PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), SPY

 Monday we said it would have been prudent to short the SPY towards the end of the day.  Never did we think that the market would gap down on the open, almost 100 points on the Dow yesterday.  What happened yesterday was mostly due to Greece, Spain & Portugal’s Credit Crisis  and as you can see this can directly effect the United States. Europe’s ability not being able to contain the debt crises directly effects the U.S Dollar, causing it to strengthen and prices for Oil and other commodities to drop sharply.

This news that occurred during the wee hours of the night (pre-market data) is exactly what the Kicker is all about.  This Kicked off market reaction that caused the Gap from Monday’s close near the high, to open below the yesterday’s days open as shown in the above image.

This type of Kicker is VERY Strong. We sent a Trade Idea Alert out to our Gold Subscribers to Add to any short positions or create a new position on the QQQQ. We will look to add more positions on the short side as long as the price does not go into Monday’s bar.

The Kicker is noticed by the the open of the first day (yesterday) is equal to or less than the prior days (Monday) open and the price is in the opposite direction from the previous days price and overall trend.

 

Lets take a look back in time to see what has happened after a “Kicker” Signal has formed.

All three Kicker Signals produced significant sell offs. Also notice not one of them came back into the prior days bar for some time.  

The Kicker is a more than a intraday trade, this is one of those trades that a trader will hold onto with a trailing stop.

On April 16th Trading High Probability called out that the Bull Run in this Bear Market is over or close to being over. It was possible to see one more test of a high or a double top. Yesterday’s Kicker Signal was Very Strong and with the Inside 2 from the other day that formed then the Inside day after the Inside 2 followed by the Kicker. We believe that the high last week is going to be the high for this bull run and we are most certain and sorry to say that we will once again resume the bear market trend.
 



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