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The Risk-Reward Market Report

Apr. 23, 2011 2:26 PM ET
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kcdarby's Blog
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S&P 500 Analysis for 4/25/11

Current Primary Trend: Bull Signal – Initiated Sept. 13th

The Primary Trend chart determines our long term market strategy of being long or in cash. The PT is the primary trend. Once the medium term trend is in the same direction as the PT chart we then enter the market. Short-term information should assist in your execution of trades. Take the emotion out of your investment decisions. Implementing a trend-following crossover strategy – has no guess work, no sophisticated technical analysis, and no judgement.


Short-Term Trend: (time frame – days to weeks) – EMA crossover

Medium-Term Trend: (time frame – weeks to months) – 5 day above/below 35 ema – Determines timing: exits, entries and re-entry. Use in correlation with the PSTS overall primary trend. Bottom 3 indicators can sometimes give a heads up.

Primary Trend: (time frame – months to years ) Less cautious investors can purchase back in when the slow scholastics moves above the 20 with the MACD above the 9 week average. Conservative investors can get out when the ADX, Force and MACD turn negative before the EMA crosses.

 We feel the S&P 500 data gives the broader view of the market.

  • NASDAQ usually leads both the up and down market trends.
  • Its estimated that 70% of trades are done by High Frequency platforms. Total volume of the NYSE consist of about 28% of the total market volume with around 85% of the NYSE being institutional volume. The NYSE still has the largest institutional investor up/down volumes and should provide a hint at the big institutions buying and selling. (volume accumulation/distribution) interpretation
  • S&P Tick & Ratio Indicators – Support & Resistance Points
  • Indices Summary Charts
  • Daily Forecast
  • DayTrend

Risk-Reward Advisor


Week of 4/25/2011version1.07

                                       27/30 – 90%

  • bullish zone: 21-30 – 70%
  • caution zone: 10 to 20
  • danger zone: 0 to 9 – 30%
MCSI: Within the context of the current uptrend, technicals indicate short-term strength – Market breadth, price and momentum indicators all went up. Intermediate term indicators still need to confirm. (ADX – Bullish % – Nasdaq Summation Index – TRIX(14,9))

    •  Primary Long-Term Trend: Bull
    • Intermediate-Term Trend: Bull
    • Short-term Trend: Bull
    •  Opinion: Trend model shows the short-term outlook has improved. The MCSI showed internal strength for the week after Mondays weakness. S&P500 support ~1300, ~1289 level then ~1249. Again we still need to break above1344 resistance. We wait for what the house deals for a hand next week, & see if the odds increase or decrease.

      Comments: If the market doesn’t break above 1344, we most likely will retrace to test even lower lows then we did in March. We have been trading sideways for a while now. Whatever way the market breaks the next time we believe may be the direction we will be going in for a while, also it may be quite a large move as we have been in this sideways trading pattern for a while. Remain cautious till we get a clear signal. S&P 500 chart says it all! Bulls were in short-term control of the week. Intermediate-term trend is bullish but our opinion is to consider it neutral till we break one way or another. RISK management is the hallmark of a successful portfolio. Baker Ave Outlook

  • Wells Fargo Market Commentary

    Bull vs. Bear

    1. The four-year presidential cycle.
    2. Slight housing gains
    3. March Leading Index Improves
    4. Seasonality: buy in the fall go away in May.
    5. POMO: ends June 30th.
    6. U.S. & European sovereign debt crisis
    7. Signs of inflation are unmistakable–this cant be good news.

    Meant only for educational purposes only: Use as a broad guide according to your risk management practices. All indicators are lagging.

    The core strength index includes 18 support indicators. Closing Friday market data of individual indicators is used to to analyze support for the following week. View this information as a check up of the markets current condition. Seeking to diagnose general or specific risks that may affect Mr. Markets health. Except for a “Black Swan” like event, we only analyze the market on a weekly basis. Daily data if required can be tallied from our word doc/links. Total score of the index will be posted along with its’ sentiment rating. The core indicators are rated individually and as group sentiment rating (Bullish,Bearish).

    Interpretation of the data for the condition indicator in our opinion, can even be somewhat subjective. We only assess market technical indicators. Fundamental indicators are not taken into account, each investor should be aware how they affect the market. Investor sentiment polls are not included in our indicators. Short, long term economic news and other factors do affect the market. Sometimes this is already baked into the market prices and sometimes it may be more of an opinion or forecast of possibles. The more subjective analysis is left up to each reader. Here is a good summary and start. Click page 2 at the bottom of the page for Market Driver links.

    All of our opinions are just that, an opinion. Use your own analysis of the market condition indicators. MCSI & Trend Risk Model Information & Misc Info

    Click below on 2 for page 2

Pages: 1 2

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