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Is It Time To Jump Into Euro-Dollar?

|Includes: ProShares Short Euro ETF (EUFX)

I don't think so! The water is freezing and it's blowing a gale.

Up until Thursday last week the euro looked fairly appalling. Seven out of nine down weeks is not a good tally for euro optimist. I was happy, as I am not one.

However, Thursday and Friday have taken the pressure back off the euro and put it on the dollar.

The euro ended in New York, close to the highs, and posted it strongest weekly performance since January.

So is that it? The euro is going to trundle along in a mindless pattern of consolidation around 1.3000. A repeat of what we saw for much of 2012.

No! Not in my view!

This year the market is trading on clear bearish sentiment. A pause in the euro storm is not cause for celebration.

Have you seen anything out of Europe that encourages you to invest in its currency?

I haven't! And I don't expect much before the German elections later in the year.

My strategy is to look for weakness between 1.3015 and 1.3170. Strong selling in this area would be a good signal that euro strength is just temporary.

I think the dollar is good value in this zone.

Brian Kiely