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Phil's Morning Alert to Members - Calling the Turn Pre-Market!

|Includes: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), IWM, SPY

Good morning!  

Same old levels as yesterday so not much to report there.  We're still watching those Major Breakout levels to see if they can be re-taken across the board and the Nas is still way off at 2,683 and the NYSE has also gone red with the Dow barely holding on yesterday and likely a bit below at the open.  

There was, however, a massive spike up in the futures that didn't stick - well over 50 Dow points so I'd say they are going to try something and that may have been a little computer test.  As JJFlash notes - we're finishing the week off with a boat-load of POMO - $22Bn in 3 days and next week is light so you would think it's now or never if they intend to finish Q1 off with a bang.

Let's not be too greedy on the DIA puts (the quarterlies, not the $25KPs, which I will update later).  We'll want to see what sticks this morning.   Europe is flat and has been wild up and down and oil is $105 with a critical inventory at 10:30 which I will not be around for as it's Diversity Day at my daughter's school but I should be back by about 11.  

Let's watch 12,000 on the Dow, of course, 8,200 on the NYSE and 800 on the RUT as critical breakdowns where we can get a bit more bearish but more likely they hold and we can find some upside plays a bit later.  

There was a bus bomb in Israel and that's never good.  

Wednesday's economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 Fed's Fisher: 'Economic Challenges and Opportunities'
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 Bernanke: 'Community Banking in a Period of Recovery and Change

At the open: Dow -0.13% to 12004. S&P -0.19% to 1291. Nasdaq -0.24% to 2677.
Treasurys: 30-year +0.54%. 10-yr +0.26%. 5-yr +0.15%.
Commodities: Crude +0.36% to $105.35. Gold +0.29% to $1431.70.
Currencies: Euro -0.59% vs. dollar. Yen -0.11%. Pound -0.84%.

Market Preview: Futures show some weakness ahead of housing data due out later this morning. Benchmark S&P -0.2%. Earlier: Colgate and Unilever are swapping some assets, BofA's dividend hike got rejectedby the Fed, and General Mills met earnings expectations. Oil +0.4% to $105.42. 

 MBA Mortgage Applications: +2.7% vs. -0.7% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly to 4.80% from 4.79%.

PIMCO sees 3 key factors as adding to global inflationary risks: the degradation of sovereign balance sheets, emerging markets becoming exporters of inflation, and aging populations saving less and consuming more. With accommodative central banks, it's a recipe for a secular move higher in inflation. 

10 Black Swans for 2011