It’s the end of the Quarter as we know it and we feel fine.
We feel fine because we cashed out on the long side (shorter-term, unhedged positions)and we really don’t care what the market does today or tomorrow but we are betting this rally reverses and we will be taking some (more) short hedges today – hopefully selling into the last legs of this fairly fake-looking rally.
In yesterday’s Morning Alert to Members we grabbed a short-term TZA hedge and I reminded Members in this morning’s Alert about our Jan TZA hedge from the 20th that is, so far, down .50 and we’ll be putting on a new Jan hedge on TZA (now $35.50) and probably EDZ ($17.90) as our primary hedges against a global melt-down over the weekend.
Of course, if we were SURE we were going to collapse next week, we’d go with the July spreads but we’re only hedging for disaster, not betting on it – at least not until after we fail all our Must Hold levels!
The Nasdaq will be a key good/bad indicator this morning as they ran EXACTLY to our Must Hold line yesterday in a mighty 3-day, 3% move. Our bullish indicator would be the NYSE breaking over 8,280 – that will keep us a little bullish until our lines begin to break again.
We’d better be making market progress as the Dollar is down at 74.86 again, back at the early June lows. I didn’t think they could take the Dollar below 75 but they hit 74.54 last night and it remains to be seen if they can hold it down in real trading, especially with the Pound weakness (see this morning’s Alert) and the Yen’s unwanted strength. Something’s gotta give and we’re betting it’s thisfake, Fake, FAKE rally….
First we’ll have to see how far down they can push the Dollar this morning and then we’ll see what kind of bump they can give the indexes, which need a whopping 2% to flatten out to last Quarters 5% up finish for the year. I’m sure that’s what the Banksters WANT to see for today’s close (just over our 1.25% lines) but that would be one crazy move on the day and it would have to be accompanied by a run-up in oil and gasoline that would sow the seeds…