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Employment Report: Quick Analysis of the Birth Death Plug

This is a quick update to the post on July 1 now that the employment report has been released (seekingalpha.com/instablog/633599-chris-ridder/79595-employment-report-how-much-fudge-in-the-number). The Birth/Death model of the BLS added 147K jobs in June before seasonal adjustments1. This is fairly close to the 154K estimate I provided for the plug figure. The employment change before seasonal adjustments was 247K, so I subtract 147k from this to get 100K2. The seasonal factor is 372K. Therefore 100K - 372K = -272K  which is more then double the -125K reported jobs lost!


Also, congrats to the BLS nailing the consensus view as reported by Bloomberg3. Just remember the July plug was -10K jobs in 2009, so a lot less "help" is coming next month.


1. www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
2. ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.tab1.txt
3. noir.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/ind...


Disclosure: None