Think of BP’s currents situation as the beginning of a very long climb up a steep cliff. Right now at the base of the cliff falling down results in a few, bumps, scraps bruises, etc. But at higher elevations, a fall will result in death. How can they survive? Below is an effort to try and maintain a long-term perspective: note my final point, there is a positive spin to all of this:
- 11 Individuals lost their lives: Why does everyone seem to pass this on like it is insignificant to the oil leaking from the ground. If you watch the 60 minutes episode regarding the disaster and the interview of one of the rig survivors you will quickly understand BP made some very bad decisions, decisions from a legal view that may be criminal. I have to imagine at some point BP will face the battle of being held responsible for the deaths of these individuals.
- This will rank as one of the largest man made disasters of all time: Since the beginning of the spill no can seem to agree on how much oil is being dumped into the Gulf. Something is going on here, we possess some of the smartest engineers in world and yet still we cannot use a fundamental engineering class such as “Fluid Dynamics” to determine how much gas and oil is leaking from the well head. Something does not sound right with this at all. Regardless, even at this point the spill is so large, if the winds change direction, the oil finds its way to the southern point of Florida, it will then shoot very quickly up the coast line affecting the entire eastern seaboard. This is no longer a question of “IF” only “WHEN”.
- I think they have a bigger problem than just the leak at the Well Head: Put on your engineering hat for a second: When we see video of the well head leaking, all I can think of is it looks like gas, not liquid. So where is the murky sludge that we see all over the beaches? My theory: when they Rig Went down or before the Rig went down the Well Line in the earth (between the seafloor and the oil field) ruptured within. Thus, the thick murky oil weighs more than the gas and is finding its way out of the ocean floor. The gas on the other hand along with some oil is following the path of least resistance and is coming out of the well head (again what we see in the video) This would also explain why the top kill method did not work. They may even fear that killing the well at the top may cause the well to blow out further and make the problem worse. (imagine if you stopped the pressure) The sad thing about this is I do not believe the relief well will work either. The Relief wells are designed to relief the pressure enough to allow for the top kill procedure to be more effective. If there is really a blowout within the well any top kill method may prove useless. Ultimately the nuclear option may be the only solution. Have the well implode on itself.
- Economic Consequences: The impact will be felt for decades. Where do we begin, Tourism, Restaurants, Sport Fishing, Fishing. The Gulf states already impacted, just wait till it hits the Florida Keys, and then the eastern seaboard (South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, RI, Cap Cod, Massachusetts) just to nave a few.
- Legal Expenses: The Cleanup will prove to be the cheapest part of this entire event. After words every small business, individual, animal, and living being effected by this disaster will need to be made whole. Law suits will run rampant, and will public sentiment at a level of disgust – Guilty will be the norm. The Billions they make will not even come close to keep up with all the settlements they have infront of them. I know one place that will be hiring over the next couple to few years –BP’s legal department.
- No one will buy them in the current state: In a simple sentence, who on earth would want to take on the fiduciary responsibilities and risk associated with British Petroleum. Again think of the lawsuits they have in front of them, not worth it on any level. Wait till they are broken in bankruptcy and then let the other oils come in and takeover the good pieces of the company.
- Public will need a fall guy: Again the crisis this will create has not yet begun. As a result the public will demand someone goes away for this, jail will be part of it for someone, but more will be required, the company will need to disappear, then and only then will some be satisfied.
- British Petroleum’s Legacy: Not all will be bad for BP, again years from now. I can only imagine the day my kids ask me about BP and how this one single event helped spark what will be known as the “Green Revolution”, the abundance of clean energy on a level never before seen. Finally our dependence on foreign oil - gone. The spill will get credit for helping to bring us out of one of the greatest recessions of our time (years 2008 to 2013). This event will mark the beginning of a new chapter in America’s Economic Landscape.