Helmsec Issues a very positive report on Buccaneer Energy (BCC.ax) Will The Share Price Take Off?
Looking over the 2011 and 2010 companies that Helmsec has done business for…they seem to be pretty good at picking winners. Now mind you, I didn’t look to see how any of these companies compared to each other, just at what the share price of companies represented by Helmsec have done over the last year or so. I also tried to stick to the oil an gas space.
I found an interesting trend, all have done better and in some cases much better. Could just be coincidence or perhaps they pick good companies. CLR was only 86 cents back on 12/17/10 and today is trading over at almost two dollars. BTU was trading at 14.5 cents on May of 2010 and today is trading at just over a dollar. GXY in May of 2009 was only trading at 49 cents and today is trading at over a dollar. ROL in December of 2009 was only 62 cents and now trades above a dollar fifty. Even ADU was trading at .40 last May, while today it trades around 65 cents.
Was Helmsec responsible for this, probably not. I don’t even know whether they even published research reports on these companies. I couldn’t find any with only a cursory look and I did not bother checking each website. What I can say is that with small resource companies they seem to be able to pick them very well. Or small resource companies that will do well seek them out, not sure which.
As it relates to Buccaneer Energy and Buccaneer Alaska, in the report it stated that if Keni Loop was successful they would rate the company at closer to 25 cents. From the look of the press release the well is successful, so the company is trading at less than ½ projected value.
Another key factor is the gas market in Alaska. Since the market is isolated they sell their gas directly to the utility. The utility is paying close to $7 an MCF while in the lower 48 we are barely passing $4.
A review of the contracts that supply the Utility is enlightening as well.
Imagine what BCC would do with a natural gas well in a productive field that can produce like others in the region and sells gas for between $6 and $9. What would that do for the cash flow picture and for the value of the stock.
Looking at the choices Helmsec has made, they seem to pick companies that do well in the months following their reports. Espcially when they have the fundamentals to back up the positive predictions in the report. If I had bought stock in 5 of the 7 companies that have been represented by Helmsec in the resource space over the last couple of years I would be very wealthy today.
So one has to wonder, what is holding this company back. The management team has been vetted. They survived the Great Financial Crisis when so many others did not. They have a producing field in the Gulf of Mexico. They have a producing field in the Austin Chalk sitting on a viable Eagleford Shale play. They have proven reserves in the offshore of Alaska and they have a brand new well onshore Alaska that has every indication of success.
Shouldn’t this stock be taking off right about now, or am I missing something?
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