Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLF, XME, GLD, USO, RIG, DO, SLB, NOV, APA, HES, EOG, IOC, SU, WFC, GS, BAC, JPM, PNC

|Includes: APA, BAC, DO, EOG, GLD, GS, HES, IOC, JPM, NOV, PNC, RIG, SLB, SU, USO, WFC, Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), XME

 Subscribe via Email (FREE)

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said:

"For the new week, the market was looking like it could continue the bounce for another day or two.  However, the nuclear reactors in Japan added a lot of uncertainties to the dire situation.  This market is still very weak and could easily fall further.  SPX barely closed above 1300 last week.  Going below 1300, SPX may not hold.  Falling oil may help to offset some market weakness.  However, if financials come down, it may be too much pressure for the market to handle."

Indeed, SPX fell below 1300 on Monday and saw a quick tumble on Tuesday morning.  However, dip-buyers came back in and the market bounce immediately, finishing the day off only 1%!  But, the momentum was on the downside and the market fell back to test Tuesday's lows on Wednesday.  Thursday saw a relief rally.  On Friday, financials bounced as the Fed cleared the way for banks to increase their dividends.  The market went a little higher, but, still closed down for the week.  We traded on both sides through another volatile week and captured some nice trades.

For the week, the Dow was down 185.88 points; SPX lost 25.08 points; Nasdaq fell 71.94 points.  Both oil and gold were little changed for the week.  At the time of this writing, Asian market were mostly up.  Here's how the US market closed on Friday:


On Friday, SPX added +5.48 points to close at 1279.2, just below 1280.  Its daily MAs curved down and the MACD slid.


Nasdaq gained +7.62 points to close at 2643.67.  Its daily MAs and MACD also went lower.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed below their recent support levels (SPX 1300 and Nasdaq 2700).  VIX popped over 30 during the week and closed above 24.  However, this weekend, Western forces finally took military action against Libya.  On Sunday, AT&T announced a $39 billion deal to buy T-Mobile USA.  For the new week...

To read the rest of this article, please subscribe to HappyTrading "Premium Articles" by going to the Premium Services (click here) page.  If you are already a subscriber, please click here: Market Forecast 3/20/11.

(click to see our Facebook Page)