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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, XME, XLF, XLE, MOO, GS, CF, AGU, MOS, POT, FCX, X, NUE, STLD

Apr. 17, 2011 11:32 PM ETGLD, XME, XLF, XLE, MOO, GS, CF, NTR, MOS, FCX, X, NUE, STLD
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Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, we discussed:

"For the new week, earnings season is starting...  A piece of good news that may help the stock market is that, according to AP, "A delegation of African leaders said Sunday that their Libyan counterpart, Moammar Gadhafi, accepted their "road map" for a cease-fire with rebels, whom they will meet Monday."  This could prompt the high-flying oil to come down a bit, which would help the market.  However, Egypt may present more problems in the Middle East and Japan's nuclear reactors were still problematic.  We could still see a range-bound market.  The upper end is 1340 and the lower end is 1320.  There's more support down below than resistance up above.  So, if 1340 is broken, the market is more likely to see a breakout.  On the other hand, below 1320, we will likely see dip-buyers rushing in.  There's strong support between 1320 and 1300."

Once again, things happened as forecasted.  Oil did pullback and the market was range-bound.  Dip-buyers did rush in under SPX 1320, and, SPX closed at 1319.68 for the week, just a tad below 1320.  On Monday and Tuesday, the market fell lower, and we took profits on our downside plays.  Investors reacted negatively to AA's earnings.  On Wednesday and Thursday, the market traded in a tight range as dip-buyers came in to drive the market back up.  JPM's earnings turned out to be a "non-event" for the broader market.  GOOG missed its earnings estimates on Thursday, but, the broader market managed to close higher on Friday.  Gold and silver continued into record territories.  We finished another good week with winners on both sides!

For the week, the Dow was down 38.22 points; SPX lost 8.49 points; Nasdaq fell 15.76 points.  Oil pulled back to $109/barrel.  Gold went above $1485/ounce and silver surge above $43/ounce.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher.  Here's how the US markets look after Friday's close:


SPX added +5.16 points to close at 1319.68.  It closed above its 20-day MA.  The MACD slid.


Nasdaq gained +4.43 points to close at 2764.65.  It also closed above its 20-day MA.  The MACD flattened.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed Friday on a positive note.  VIX sank down to 15.32.  On Sunday, China once again raise the required reserves for its banks to fight inflation in the country.  For the new week...

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