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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, UUP, USO, GLD, XME, SWH


Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,

"For the new week, most sectors seem to have sync'd up to go higher.  SPX closed right at its 10-day MA while Nasdaq closed above.  Another solid green day, the indices could have the daily upper BB within their reach.  The market will need to push the daily upper BB up in order to go another leg higher.  For SPX it is at about 1040, and Nasdaq will need to break above 2050."

Once again, the market pretty much did as forecasted.  SPX closed the week at 1042.73, just 2.73 points above the 1040 level, and Nasdaq broke above 2050.  On Tuesday, the market rallied higher on commodities and techs.  On Wednesday, techs continued to push the market higher and the financials strengthened.  On Thursday, the commodity sectors drew more buyers in and helped the market indices to establish new 2009 highs.  On Friday, the market was strong in the morning, but, closed slightly in the red as investors locked in profits after 5 days of rally.

For the week, the Dow added +164.14 points; SPX gained +26.33 points; Nasdaq jumped +62.12 points.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower.  Japan was especially weak on its exporters being hurt by strong Yen.  Hong Kong and Taiwan were seeing some profit-taking after another strong week.  China was in the green.  Both oil and gold were down slightly.  Let's see where the US market stands after Friday's close:


On Friday, SPX sled 1.41 points to close at 1042.73.  It managed to stay above 1040.  The MACD went higher.


Nasdaq slipped 3.12 points to close at 2080.9.  Its daily MAs and MACD went up.

For both SPX and Nasdaq, the daily MAs and MACD have turned higher.  The MACD is now showing a new "bullish" crossover.  Nasdaq has cleared the resistance at 2050, while SPX is testing the 1040 level.  More economic data came in last week and supported the case of the economic recovery being on its way.  VIX fell below 25 and tested 23.  The 23 level did hold up last week.  After rallying for 5 straight days, the market finally took a breather on Friday.  For the new week...

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