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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLF, OIH, XME, GLD

|Includes: CLF, FCX, GLD, GS, MA, MEE, OIH, Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), XME

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, we have to be very careful.  With gold trading higher again this evening, we could get another so-called "mutual fund Monday" buying to start the week.  But, unless the market can jump back to close above the recent resistance levels, it may be stuck in a range.  On the support side, we'll need to pay attention to the daily MAs.  If the market closes below the daily MAs, it would be hard to make a bullish case.  We have some housing data on Monday, then, GDP and consumer confidence on Tuesday.  These could be potential market movers, especially ahead of Black Friday.  Financials have been on the weak side, and, we'll need to see renewed strength in them for the market to push back above SPX 1100."

As usual, the market behaved according to the forecast.  On Monday, the market jumped and gold recorded another new high.  We locked in on some big gains.  On Tuesday, the market treaded water as financials still lacked strength.  On Wednesday, gold went above $1190/ounce and SPX tested 1110, but remained range-bound.  On Wednesday night, news on Dubai's crisis hit the world markets.  The US market was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving.  On Friday, the US market gapped lower at the open, but, managed to climb higher all day and SPX closed just above 1090.  We finished a very strong month of trading (see published trades).

For the week, the Dow was down 8.24 points; SPX added +0.11 points; Nasdaq lost 7.6 points.  Gold was strong all week, until Friday's minor pullback.  Oil fell lower, trading around $76/barrel.  This evening, at the time of this writing, gold was flat and crude climbed higher.  Asian markets were bouncing strongly from last week's big drop on Dubai.  Let's see how the US market looks after Friday's close:


SPX lost 19.14 points to close at 1091.49.  it clsoed below its 10-day MA.  The MACD was lower.


Nasdaq fell 37.61 points to close at 2138.44.  It closed at where its 30-day and 20-day MAs met.  Its MACD slid.

Both SPX and Nasdaq were rising back above their daily MAs, until Friday when the Dubai news spooked the market.  VIX jumped to test 26 on Friday and closed just below 25.  However, SPX's daily MAs have just developed into a new bullish formation!  There are still some mixed signals.  For the new week...

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