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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLF, GLD, SOXX, XLE

|Includes: AMAT, AVGO, BAC, CVX, GLD, GS, INTC, Intel Corporation (INTC), JPM, MRVL, TXN, WFC, XLE, XLF, XOM

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"Both SPX and Nasdaq were rising back above their daily MAs, until Friday when the Dubai news spooked the market.  VIX jumped to test 26 on Friday and closed just below 25.  However, SPX's daily MAs have just developed into a new bullish formation!  There are still some mixed signals.  For the new week, although the market pulled back on Friday, it held up exceptionally well comparing to other markets.  Gold is holding its ground this evening after another big win last week.  Asian markets are mostly higher.  We could get another "mutual fund Monday" buying to start the week.  We still need to see strength in the financials for this market to break above its recent trading range.  Black Friday shopping results are moderately positive, so, we'll see if the retailers can respond positively on Monday.  On Friday, we'll get December's unemployment numbers.  The market may stay range-bound until then.  On the top, SPX 1110 and Nasdaq 2200 still remain as the resistance levels; on the bottom, the immediate supports are the daily MAs."

Indeed, the "mixed signals" kept the market range-bound.  On Monday, the market finished slightly higher and the big buying did not come until Tuesday, as semiconductors jumped on ALTR's favorable forecast.  On Wednesday, fertilizers took over and charged up to new heights.  We cashed out with more than +100% gain on our MOS trade.  On Thursday, things started to wobble before the unemployment rate report.  On Friday, the new jobs data came out better-than-expected, with unemployment rate dropping.  The market's initial reaction was strongly bullish, but, saw some profit-taking as the day went.  The commodity sectors were weak as the dollar rose.  However, the market did manage to finish higher.  The resistance levels (SPX 1110 and Nasdaq 2200) were tested, but, the market did not close above them.

For the week, the Dow was up +78.98 points; SPX added +14.49 points; Nasdaq gained +55.91 points.  Gold finally came down on Friday after reaching above $1220/ounce on Thursday.  Oil tried to bounce, but, closed slightly lower for the week.  This evening, both gold and oil were stable, with gold down slightly.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed.  Let's see how the US market looks after Friday's close:


SPX added +6.06 points to close at 1105.98.  It closed above its daily MAs, which went higher.  Its MACD was flat.


Nasdaq gained +21.21 points to close at 2194.35.  It closed just below the 2200 level.  It daily MAs and MACD turned up.

The market has been consolidating for about 3 weeks now, since mid-November.  Overall, the financials have not been participating much.  Energy stocks have been weak.  Metals and mining have been stronger, thanks in part to gold.  Techs have shown strength, especially this week in semiconductors, which we'll discuss in the "Sector Watch" later.  Solar and agricultural stocks have started to see buyers coming back in, especially the agricultural stocks.  For the new week...

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Disclosure: no positions in names mentioned above