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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, USO, XLF, BTK


Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote,

"For the new week, we are seeing mixed signals on the market again, which means the market needs more time to consolidate.  With the MACD turning lower, we could see another couple of days of profit-taking in various sectors.  It will be important for SPX to hold above 1110.  However, oil looks strong and could breakout.  We'll have to see how this will affect the energy stocks.  Financials almost turned bullish last week, until the quick pullback in the last hour, which kept XLF below the resistance.  We'll get the latest unemployment report on Friday, but, I think the market could make up its mind about where to go next before the new jobs data come out."

I also specifically focused the importance on the financial sector by saying,

"I think the XLF could tell the true story next week.  Breaking above $14.6 will be the key for the continuation of the market's rally."

The market, again, behaved as forecasted.  Financials were very, very strong.  On Monday, right out of the gate, XLF closed above that $14.6 level.  The financials led the market up throughout the week.  Oil did break out higher and the energy stocks made new highs.  We made a great trade on WLT, making a +91% gain in 1 day.  Stocks stayed strong all week, and, like I said in my forecast, the market made up its mind about where to go before Friday's jobs report.  Even though the unemployment report was not favorable, the market pushed higher.  As most of our members know, and I mentioned this in last Thursday's article, "Every weekend, I write a Market Forecast & Sector Watch article to "browse" through the market to help our readers manage what to expect from the market in the coming week.  I specifically go into sectors and/or "factors" that have the most potential to move the market, whichever way."  If you're already following my trades, reading the Market Forecast article before the week starts should help prepare you even better for the trades that I'm looking to make in the coming week.

For the week, the Dow was up +190.14 points; SPX added +29.88 points; Nasdaq gained +48.02 points.  Both oil and gold traded higher.  Coals and steels were especially strong.  As predicted a few weeks back, X topped $60 during the first week of January!  The dollar tried to hold its ground, but, fell lower after the jobs report on Friday.  This evening, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher.  Both gold and oil were trading up as well.  Let's see how the US market looks after Friday's close:


SPX added +3.29 points to close at 1144.98.  Its daily MAs and MACD moved higher.


Nasdaq gained +17.12 points to close at 2317.17, above the 2300 level.  The MACD was slightly higher.

Nasdaq stalled last week until the late Friday burst, while the financials led the SPX on a steady climb along the daily upper BB.  VIX fell sharply to just above 18.  For the new week...

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Disclosure: no positions