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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, USO, XME, XLF, CLF, WLT, X, GS, BHP

|Includes: BHP, CLF, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), GS, USO, WLT, X, XLF, XME

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, the market will need to push higher to catch the daily upper BB soon if this rally were to continue.  SPX and Nasdaq spent the last 4 trading sessions hovering around their respective key levels.  The daily upper BBs are closing in; so, the market will have to act fast and break out to the next level.  If the market can get above the key levels, we should see market indices catch the daily upper BB by the week's end.  On the downside, if the 10-day MA does not hold, we could see a quick test down to SPX 1150.  On Friday, we will get the latest unemployment report.  However, the market is closed for Good Friday.  Commodity sectors have been wavering lately as the dollar strengthened.  Leadership roles continue to shift onto tech and financial stocks, but, we'll still need to see strength in the commodity sectors to rally higher."

Indeed, the market pretty much hung above the key levels (SPX 1170 and Nasdaq 2400) and broke high to test the daily upper BB on Friday.  Commodity stocks got a boost as energy stocks came alive with oil nearing 52-week high and gold made solid gains.  On Monday, we saw coal and oil services stocks leading the market higher.  On Tuesday and Wednesday, the market traded in a tight range.  On Thursday, the market jumped in the morning, coming close to the daily upper BB, but, saw some profit-taking in the afternoon.  It did manage to close above SPX 1170 and Nasdaq 2400.  We wrapped up a pretty good month (see Monthly Wrap Report).

On Friday, the latest jobs data said that March saw the biggest increase in jobs in three years, but, the unemployment rate was unchanged.  Asian markets were mostly higher at the time of this writing.  China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan markets were closed.  Oil was up, while gold slid slightly.  Let's see how the US market looks after Friday's close:


SPX added +8.67 points to close at 1178.1, above the 1170 level.  Its daily MAs remained up and the MACD flattened.


Nasdaq gained +4.62 points to close at 2402.58, just above the 2400 level.  Its MACD slipped again.

Both market indices closed above their respective key levels.  VIX remained under 18.  For the new week...

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