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Once Again, Defying the Odds

|Includes: Amec Foster Wheeler plc (AMFW), RIG

We posted some good wins and took some lumps on others, a mixed week but a winner nonetheless.

# April 22, 2010
# 07:11 | Bagger Vance GLD ($111.00) Sold to Close GCZ 05222010 113 C May 113 calls, at $1.29 -51%
# 07:08 | Bagger Vance TSL ($23.70) Sold to Close TSL 05222010 27 C May 27 calls, at $0.55 -73%
# 07:07 | Bagger Vance DRYS ($5.98) Sold to Close 00C 05222010 6 C May 6 calls, at $0.30 -63%
# April 20, 2010
# 10:03 | Bagger Vance FWLT ($31.50) Sold to Close UFB 05222010 30 C May 30 calls, at $2.15 +115%
# 08:12 | Bagger Vance RIG ($92.50) Sold to Close RIG 05222010 90 C May 90 calls, at $4.65 +100%
# 06:52 | Bagger Vance POT ($109.40) Sold to Close PYP 052210 110 C May 110 calls, at $4.55 +57%

It sure seemed likely the markets were going to take a breather this week.  After all, the expiration week was fantastic, many new highs and the VIX plunging again...that was of course before the Goldman news on expiration Friday.  Many expected followthrough and for another correction to ensue.  Alas, that was not the case again as the market continues to confound those on the other side of the winning trade.  It was all about earnings again this week, Apple was the clear winner along with some other tech and retail names.  Even energy managed to make a stand with a strong dollar, but that may be coming in some here.  Gold bounced around a bit but seems ready to make another move on 1200, while tech stocks and small caps soared to new multiyear highs (Nasdaq and Russell 2K). Fear seems lacking here with the lower VIX and why shouldn't it?  What has the market done wrong lately?

Next week brings a busy one, with much more on the earnings front, a Fed meeting and other important economic data.  Should be fun!  I'm favoring the coal names here along with some steel and gold for short term plays.  We'll have some out for you this week, BUT you only get them if you get the alerts.  Bagger Vance Signup

Got this nice note after talking up RMBS:

I put this out midday:
April 23, 2010 9:35 AM
time for some RMBS

then this came out from member G Gan a few hrs later:
April 23, 2010 12:30 PM
BV ... thx for the RMBS (got a 60%)

That's what it's all about!

Have a great weekend!

by Bagger Vance