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Giving National Bank Of Greece (NBG) Another Chance.

The Chart:

Up on high Volume … down on low Volume … = … Accumulations & Consolidation.

The only problem I see is the Vol/Price divergence in the Chart. Price new Highs not confirmed by Volume new Highs.

The Options:

Over the past three months, Call open interest went from 306,943 to 938,079 (+205%)

Over the past three months, Call open interest went from 35,200 to 78,484 (+122%)

Call Open Interest to Put Open Interest = 11.95

Many Bullish bets (worth USD m) have been placed … and most of them will be profitable if NBG price is above 8.50 by January 2015.

For example, here Is a trade I happened to see on October 20/21 (don't recall exactly).

Long 20,000 $7 calls at a price of 0.59 ... -$1.180m
Short 10,000 $5 calls at a price of 1.53 ... +$1.530m

total credit ... $0.35m

If NBG is below $5 by Jan2015 ... you will "gain" $0.350m

If NBG is above 7$ you will gain $0.350, + $1m for every $1 the price is higher than $8.65

Maximum loss = $1.65m ... if price at expiration i exactly $7

BE barriers $5 to the downside, and $8.65 to the upside

Our trader thinks that the price will be either higher than $8.65 ... or lower than $5 by January 2015. The fact that he bought a double quantity of Calls ... signals he has a bullish view on NBG!

That's a nice trade! ... Could be very profitable! If NBG is at $14 by 2015 ... this guy would pocket in ... about $5.35m ... risking $1.65m