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I Believe These Cycles are in Play Now!

|Includes: TMF, Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares ETF (TZA), UAL, UAUA, VXX, VXZ
No one can see the future, But IMVHO, at some point the paragraphs below will play out, whether now or a little later... I am betting weighted short, with TZA and playing the Oil down, stronger dollar more travel, bottom line up, Revs Up for Airlines with UAUA and CAL to a lesser extent. looking at EPV, VXX, VXZ and possibly TMF as a swing trade...

Our problem is more of a demographic one, the population is aging. The Boomers are past their peak spending years. They are starting to save for retirement or retiring… We CANNOT escape this. The last time we faced the same demographic situation was in 1928 when another large generation had already peaked in spending. Japan has already experienced this in the 1990’s.

Anything else is a just a Red Herring…

Further more the crisis during the Carter administration was due to the Boomers Hitting the Job Market in the 70’s.

We are facing the end of 5 cycles almost simultaneously, a Spending cycle, a Technology cycle, a Commodity cycle, a Housing and a demographic one. We’ll survive, and in the end there will be more entitlements not less, and we will see deflation, not inflation. Taxes will go up. Weak companies will die. Assets will depreciate and debts will just disappear… In the end the general population will once again be able to afford to live on what they make… That’s what happens. There is no other way. You can fight it, or accept it and make wise economic decisions by understanding it…

The Echo Boomers, the children of the Baby Boomers will soon pick up the slack around 2017, though they are a smaller generation…


Disclosure: "Long TZA, Long UAUA, Long CAL, No position VXX, No position VXZ, No position TMF, No position EPV"