These daily pre-market notes are being distributed to members of the premium service for the past few months. We were able to ride over the recent market pullback by hedging our portfolios and got back into core biotech positions when the market showed signs of bottoming, thus outperforming the biotech indexes during this pullback. Market timing can greatly enhance the returns of a core biotech portfolio, especially in the ninth inning of a 10-year bull market.
Market Outlook for Friday, August 30, 2019 (first sent to members Friday morning):
S&P 500, SPX futures are trading up to 2933 at present. A small pullback to 2920-2910 is likely on Friday before moving to 2945 target for this week. 2940 is a resistance since it represents the upper end of the recent trading range for SPX (2940-2800), so watch for any rejection of this area in the first attempt. Looking at the NYAD line, I am currently biased towards new all-time highs in SPX by end of this year, targeting 3200 unless a black swan event like an escalation of Hong Kong tensions happens, leading a relapse of U.S./China trade wars. A break below 2875 at this time will make the bullish case less probable.
If SPX pulls back on Friday, the corresponding support level for XBI is 80.75-81, which if held could lead to the first price target this week of 82-82.50. The trend is up unless 80 is broken.
Bitcoin is undergoing some consolidation after yesterday’s sharp drop and resistance lies at 9600-9700. The trend is down as long as below 10,300, with the first downside target at 9000. Ethereum is also in consolidation, has resistance at 174-176 and remains in a downtrend as long as below 190, with first downside target at 160.
This post represents my own opinion and is not professional investment advice. Long GBTC. Short BTCUSD
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Disclosure: I am/we are long see the article.