Don’t say that I did not warn you: Ayala Corporation – led Globe Telecom, Inc. or GLO in the Philippine Stock Exchange looks to be headed for a steep fall. Let me show you why.
Back in February 17, 2011, I already raised the red flag on GLO when it was still trading above the neckline of a massive head and shoulders formation (kindly see my previous post here). Since that time, GLO’s situation went worse as it slipped and eventually broke below the PHP 700.00 support (where the neckline lies) last on February 23. For awhile, GLO attempted to rally back above PHP 700.00 but the selling pressure on that level was too great. Again, GLO fell below it as it closed at PHP 664.00 last Friday.
Now, GLO could still reverse its bad future if it is able to rebound above the PHP 700.00 marker in the days to come. But it will take a lot of buying interest for it to go over that area since it is a price level that held for more than 10 years. And given these times of risk aversion due to the political tension in Egypt, it is unlikely that the market will buy into the equities markets and specifically into GLO with such confidence. So with GLO’s recent move, it is now quite possible that it will fall even lower. Based on its chart, its next level of support is around PHP 400.00. Its downside target meanwhile is much lower, given the height of the pattern. That’s why its scary. Therefore, it is best to just avoid this stock. Better yet, why not short it if your broker will allow you to do so.
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