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Which Way Will the Aussie Go? Up or Down?


What’s up forex peeps! I present to you now a fresh peek on the AUDUSD. From my post about the pair last June 7, you can see that it has rallied all the way back up to the neckline of the previous double top formation after breaking down from a rising wedge formation. Though, it gets a bit tricky now given the conflicting technical signals that I see. This Monday’s price action confirmed its breakout from a double bottom formation. Notice also that it has already broken its short term downtrnd line. Another bullish signal is the gap that occured during the beginning of the week since a gap up is usually followed by another upmove once it gets filled up. On the flip side, the neckline of the massive double top formation could halt the pair from moving higher. Conditions are also overbought as of the moment, suggesting that traders could once again push the Australian dollar down. But based on the technicals alone, if you ask me, I’d say that the pair has a higher chance of moving lower since it took a lot more time for it to form the double top pattern than the double bottom. In any case, if the pair is able to move past the neckline, its minimum upside target would be at 0.9150 (computed by projecting the height of the double bottom pattern from the point of breakout). But if it fails to do so, it could fall back to the 0.8100 area or revisit its 2010 low.

Fundamentally, the recent rally in the Aussie are perhaps due to some profit taking actions or covers on AUD short positions and by the apparent strengthening in the global economic rebound. Last Friday, the US equities markets still ended with a nice gain despite an unexpected drop in US retail sales becuase of the better than projected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report for the month of June. The index came in at 75.5 which is above the 74.5 consensus. Monday’s better-expected industrial production growth in the euro zone also sustained the market’s risk appetite. Moreover, the AUD’s interest rate (4.50%) advantage over it peers, gave it a lot more favor over the other majors whenever the market is bullish.

Nonetheless, the pair could still turn around and sink since the whole debt drama in the euro zone is still far from over. Greece as well as its neighbors in the region are presently facing some fiscal difficulties. In Australia, the central bank’s relatively high interest rate has apprently affected the housing market in the country and caused it to post losses during the last several months. No major economic data are due for release this week in Australia. Hence, any developments from Europe would more likely be the catalyst in the AUD’s short term movement.

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