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Gold is Still Alive! Whew! – August 5, 2010


Hello trading fans! Last week gold provided the market with a scare when it temporarily broke its long term uptrend line (kindly see my previous blog here). As you know, a break of an uptrend could spell disaster given the possibility of a reversal. Hence, it’s a good thing that gold managed to pull itself back above the uptrend line again. Gold actually found a nice support at 1,160.00 after it cut through the uptrend line. And now that it is trading above it once more, it’s safe to say that it could continue its journey back north. A break, however, of the uptrend support could once again push it towards 1,160.00. In my opinion, it is imperative for it to clear its all-time high 1,265.05 to be able to extend its present uptrend. A failure to do so could send it in consolidation mode. Worse, gold could even reverse and give back at least part of its gains.

Fundamentally, the demand for gold rose last week, pushing its price up, when the US’s GDP printed a slower-than-projected growth of 2.4% (versus 2.5%) after expanding by 3.7% during the first leg of the year. Prior to that, both core and headline durable goods for the month of June also unexpectedly fell by 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively. This week, frail US economic data has continued to subdue the confidence in the market, causing investors to seek shelter in gold. Pending home sales (-2.6%) and factory orders (-1.2%) likewise posted some unexpected declines.

Gold could experience some volatility tomorrow with the release of the US’s non-farm payroll (NYSE:NFP) report for the month of July. US firms are seen to have slashed a total of 59,000 workers on top of the 125,000 that was retrenched in June. But if the ADP’s estimate is correct (according to them, US firms did not cut any jobs but even added 42,000 more), risk appetite among investors could return which could spell a retracement in the very short term as they move their funds to riskier assets. Worse-than-expected results, on the other hand, could spur risk aversion which would benefit the safer instruments like gold.

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