Financial market report for the week ending February 11, 2011.
1) … Introduction
Exhaustion of quantitative easing, failure of traditional carry trade investing, the US Federal Deficit, a municipal bond funding crisis, and the European sovereign debt and banking crisis, are the dynamos that will propel the world from the Age of Leverage and into the Age of Deleveraging.
2) … Exhaustion of quantitative easing is underway and intensifying.
Beginning with the announcement of QE 1, roughly two years ago, investors favored distressed securities, like those taken in by the US Federal Reserve, which are traded by FAGIX, the Emerging Market Countries, EEM, Leveraged Buyout Indebted Companies, PSP, Junk Bonds, JNK, and Emerging Markets Bonds, EMB, as is seen in the chart of FAGIX, EEM, PSP, JNK, and EMB.
The weekly chart of distressed investment mutual fund FAGIX, FAGIX Weekly, shows a growth from the beginning of QE 2 to the end of earnings seasons in February 2011 of 4.5 to 9.8. It has been the moneyness of distressed investments held by the US Federal Reserve that has underwritten the global stock market, VT, recovery.
Two mid cap stocks exemplify the stock wealth that has come via quantitative easing are Herbalife, HLF, and Harley Davidson, HOG, as is seen in the Yahoo Finance chart of HLF, HOG, VCR and SPY.
Beginning with the announcement of QE 2 in early November 2011, deleveraging and disinvestment has been widespread in a number of stocks and stock ETFs, while a dollar liquidity trade and the seigniorage of the Apple Ecosystem, boosted the US Shares, especially the most discretionary stocks. But these two seigniors are about to loose their moneyness, as even they succumb to quantitative exhaustion easing.
Anticipation of Quantitative Easing 2 were quite inflationary in the Asia Tigers and also the South East Asia countries and Turkey. Ben Bernanke’s investment cool aid gushed into these countries and inflated stock values.
The countries that saw hot money flows and inflation that came with QE 2, are either now, or have been seeing, a fast loss of value that comes with an exhaustion of QE 2.
Taiwan and South Korea have the name Asia Tiger for a reason.
Taiwan, EWT, fell 2.1%. Taiwan Small Caps, TWON, fell 0.9%. I find it surprising that the Taiwan Small Caps are experiencing less fast loss of value than Taiwan. The Taiwan Small Caps are making a rounded top and falling lower, while Taiwan, are falling sharply lower; this can be seen in the Yahoo Finance Chart of TWON and ETW.
South Korea, EWY, fell 2.3% and South Korea Small Caps, SKOR, fell 1.5%. The South Korea experience is much like that of Taiwan.
Now South Korea, EWY, and a little more significantly Taiwan, EWT, are starting to experience what the emerging market countries, have experienced, that being the exhaustion of quantitative easing. These two technology leaders, the electronics leader South Korea, and the semiconductor leader Taiwan, are now participating in the quantitative easing exhaustion that The Philippines, EPHE, Indonesia, IDX, Turkey, TUR, and Thailand, THD, have been experiencing. These four are known to be more speculative than South Korea and Taiwan. Investors have deleveraged out of the Philippines, Indonesia, Turkey and Thailand, as bond investors derisked out of US Treasuries when QE 2 was announced, as is seen in the chart of EPHE, IDX, TUR, and THD and TLT. Then finally the investment tide turned flowed out on the emerging markets, EEM, as a whole in January, and then this week the emerging markets as a whole gave way, and entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down. The Emerging Markets failed to be a sound investment as quantitative easing exhausted.
Beginning six months ago, the announcement of the EFSF monetary authority, a US Dollar liquidity trade, and the seigniorage of the Apple Ecosystem, gave moneyness to leveraged buyout companies, PSP, consumer discretionary service companies, IYC, and small cap US stocks, like the Russell 2000, IWO, as emerging market bonds, EMB, and then this year emerging market countries, EEM, were deleveraged by falling US Treasuries. Ben Bernanke in printing money to purchase US Sovereign debt, first destabilized emerging market bonds, EMB, and then snuffed out the inflation driven value of stocks in the Philippines, Turkey, Indonesia, as is seen in the chart of FAGIX, EEM, PSP, JNK, EMB, IWO, IYC.
This week, the week ending February 12, 2011, marked an ending of earnings season, and the likely moneyness of the US Central Bank as Junk Bonds, JNK, turned lower from 40.63, and as US Government Bonds, TLT, hit a temporary bottom of 88.19. The end of credit as it has traditionally been known, may have commenced.
US Stocks relative to the US 10 Year Note, VTI:TLT, reflects that the US stocks have maxed out on the US seigniorage provided by US Central Bank. Deleveraging from a failure of US Central Bank seigniorage, as well as failure of Portugal and other European Nation seigniorage is likely to start a wave of disinvestment from stocks globally. Thus in February 2011, we are likely to see falling world government bonds, BWX, falling interntional corporate bonds, PICB, and falling world wide stock value, ACWI.
Both stocks and bonds will be falling lower in value; and the dynamo is mostly going to be exhaustion of quantitative easing and failure of debt sovereignty, that is debt seigniorage, as bond vigilantes call interest rates higher globally. Then the currency traders are likely to call commodity currencies, CCX, the major currencies, DBV, like the Euro, FXE, and the New Zealand Dollar, BNZ, and the emerging market currencies, CEW, lower.
The neoliberal Milton Friedman Free To Choose floating currency regime has died with the end of earnings season in February 2011, and with the exhaustion of quantitative easing.
As the FX currency traders conduct a global currency war against the world central bankers, a new rule of dictate by a global Chancellor, a Sovereign, and a global Banker, a Seignior, will arise to replace sovereign nation states. Leaders will announce Framework Agreements; these will replace constitutional law and the traditional rule of law.
The coming Age of Deleveraging will be characterised by the inability to profitably use traditional carry trade lending to invest long the markets. This is seen in the Optimized Carry ETN, ICI, having entered an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 Decline this week.
The chart of the ETF JYN, which is the inverse of the USD/JPY, shows that the long slide of the US Dollar relative to the Yen, has ended for now, with the announcement of QE 2 in November 2010. The Yen is now the great slider. This signals an end to successfully borrowing the Yen at the Bank of Japan or one of their partners and leveraging a loan and investing long in a stock or bond marketplace.
The chart of Oil, UCO, shows a head and shoulders pattern that goes back to early October 2010; prices usually fall from such patterns. The chart of Brent Oil, BNO, shows ceiling resistance suggesting a market top in this commodity has been achieved. Recent report shows there to be surplus oil in the market place. Baring the outbreak of war, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude, $WTIC, will be going down. Mike Mish Shedlock provides the multi-year chart of West Texas Intermediate Crude, Multi Year $WTIC, falling through a broadening top pattern: oil prices are headed lower. Energy stock prices, which came by the QE 2 cool aid, will be falling lower.
China Energy, CHIE, really took a hit on the topping out of oil and on China Bank and credit tightening.
3) … Commentary on trading in specific investments this week.
There has been a massive purchase of consumer discretionary stocks, like Harley Davidson, HOG, Shutterfly, SFLY, Liberty Media Holding, LCAPA.
Investors bought into the automobile stocks causing them to crest up into a Elliott Wave 2 up, setting them for their great fall in an Elliott Wave 3 Down. This includes American Axle, AXL, Autoliv, ALV, Dana Holding, DAN, Magna International, MGA, Tenneco Automotive, TEN, TRW Automotive, TRW, WABCO Holdings, WBC, Ford, F, and Johnson Controls, JCI. Investment in these companies defined and came by quantitative easing. And now exhaustion of quantitative easing is going to cause ongoing disinvestment and deleveraging out of these stocks. I would go short these stocks but I decided long ago to invest in gold bullion. This ongoing Yahoo Finance Chart of AXL, DAN, ALV, DAN, MGA, TEN, TRW, and WBC shows these as a group cresting up into an an Elliott Wave 2 High; this presents as a short selling opportunity.
Like junk bonds, JNK, and like leveraged buyouts, PSP, there are the communication service providers, American Tower, AMT, and Crown Castle International, CCI. These two are seeing a flurry of investment cool aid, at what is, the end of the Age of Leverage. Talk about maximum leverage these define it. Up until the announcement of QE 2, the the Junior Gold Mining Stocks, GDXJ, and the gold mining stocks, GDX, were the great swing trade of the last decade. But investors swung American Tower and Crown Castle International high in a final salute to the Age of Leverage.
Investors gave favor this week to consumer discretionary, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, and to a lesser degree MGM Resorts, MGM, and an even much lesser degree Las Vegas Sands, LVS, moving gaming, BJK, higher on Friday.
Companies like Clayton Williams Energy, CLEI, gave boost to small cap energy services, XLES, making it manifest what may be an evening star.
Deflationary leader, manufactured housing manufacturer, Cavco Industries, CVCO, rose this week, cresting it up for a major sell off.
Charts show that the age of profitably investing in clean energy, QCLN, and ICLN, is over and done as solar energy stocks, TAN, are headed lower. GT Solar, SOLR, LDK Solar, LDK, crested up into an Elliott Wave 2 up; while SunPower Corp, SPWRA, manifested a megaphone or broadening top pattern. Someone who is recommending these at the current time must not have looked at the charts.
European Stocks appear to be manifesting what is likely to turn out to be an island reversal pattern; they will be taken down by a falling Euro, FXE. Companies include energy company ENI, E, and building technology Siemens, SI.
Investors brought small cap pure value, RZV, and swung its peer, small cap pure growth, RZG, higher. The currency leverage curve, that is the ratio of the two, RZV:RZG, was called up to resistance, suggesting that the currency traders are really going to go short the currencies, and the US Dollar, $USD, will rise somewhat for a while.
Charts show Bank of Montreal, BMO, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME, to be violent movers.
The seigniorage of the Apple Ecosystem appears complete. It is now safe to short sell semiconductors, XRT ….. The chart of Applied Materials, AMAT, and Ceva, CEVA, SanDisk, SNDK, NIVIDIA, NVDA, and Triquent Semiconductor, TQNT, show down …. And the chart of Micron, MU, and Cypress Semiconductor, CY, Entegris, ENTG, Skyworks Solutions, SWKS, show a top being achieved.
Base metal commodity, DBB, fainted on weakening commodity currencies, CCX. The Age of Deleveraging will be marked by falling base metal commodity prices and falling basic material stock, IYM, prices. It looks like the whole spectrum of metals is manifesting exhaustion of quantitative easing. Aluminum, JJU, appears to be falling from a congested matrix: an island reversal may be at hand. Copper, JJC, looks topped out. Lead, LD, is in an Elliott Wave 3 Down. Tin, JJT, ran strong on Friday of this week. Nickel, JJN, looks bearish as it shows a lollipop hanging man candlestick at the top of an ascending wedge. I wish I had a futures account. I would go short Nickel. The king of mining companies, and component of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, $CYC, Freeport McMoRan, Copper & Gold, FCX, is in an Elliott Wave 3 Down and is at the edge of a massive head and shoulders pattern; all I can say is “lookout below.
China Minerals, CHIM, shows the effect of China bank tightening and exhaustion of quantitative easing.
I’ve mentioned coal, KOL, quite a bit in my articles. It is on the edge of head and shoulders pattern and ready for a major loss of value. Arch Coal, ACI, has the head and shoulders pattern.
Copper miners, COPX, fell to the middle of a broadening top pattern. Southern Copper Corporation, SCCO, has suffered a significant loss of value; and is about to loose more value as the price of copper falls. Ben Bernanke’s QE 2 cool aid inflated base metal commodity prices and now its about to go toxic, poisoning the copper mining companies.
The chart of FAGIX, proxy of distressed investments held by the US Federal Reserve, FAGIX, base metals, DBB, Industrial Metals, CRBI, and US Basic Materials, IYM, ... FAGIX, DBB, CRBI, IYM … documents how the US Central bank holdings of distressed investments gave seigniorage, that is moneyness to inflate the value of mining companies world wide.
Notice how the chart of FAGIX moved strongly higher after the formal announcement of QE 2 to serve as the basis of moneyness for the rally in stocks through the end of earnings season February 2011. Notice how the chart of base metals, DBB, weakened this week as earnings came to an end; this suggests that investors are taking profits on their futures base metals and are likely going to exit and sell base metals short.
The chart of the energy shares, XLE, relative to oil, USO, XLE:USO, shows QE 2 inflation. Just imagine the gains that are coming to those short the 200% of the basic materials, UYM. The chart of XLE, just oozes of the beginning of short selling. Great rewards are coming to those invested short the 200% of energy, DIG. Just after QE 2 was first announce at Jackson Hole, DIG, took off like a rocket going from 25 to 55. Ben wanted inflation, well those invested in DIG sure got good results from Ben Bernanke’s QE 2.
National Oilwell Varco, NOV, shows a bearish harami at the top of an ascending wedge. While Transocean, RIG, has sold off and is manifesting a bearish harami in an Elliott Wave 3 Down. Needless to say the age of profiting from investing in energy, XLE, companies and energy service companies, OIH, is history. These stand as soon to be white washed tombs to a prior prosperous age.
The last of QE 2 cool aid brought investment in Mosaic, MOS, and Potash, POT, up to new highs this week.
The chart of Capitol One Finance, COF, American Express, AXP, Discover Financial Services, DFS, Nelnet, NNI, and the S&P … COF, AXP, DFS, NNI, and SPY, … shows the recovery of the financial sector that has come by US Central Bank monetary policy. Will the engine of finance be turning lower, deleveraging the S&P? I believe so.
Stockcharts.com reports that 4,366 mutual funds stood at a 52 week high. In other words, roughly half off mutual funds are performing admirably. A massive number of S&P, SPY, Banks, KBE, Russell 2000, IWM, and Retail, XRT, contracts were purchased on Friday. I believe that this next week, the stock market will close lower for the reasons outlined in this report.
Strong gainers this week included the following; all of which could have been sold short near the end of the day on Friday February 11, 2010 as one sells short as waves crest to an Elliott Wave 5 Top or crest to an Elliott Wave 2 High.
Technology ….. Panel Display, PANL,
Health Care, Psychiatric Services ….. PHC Inc, PHC,
Internet Retail, HHH, 5.2% .…. Amazon, AMZN, Google, GOOG,
Agricultural Implements ….. CNH Global, CHN,
Dow Home Builders, ITB, 4.2% ….. KB Homes, KBH, Lennar, LEN, Home Depot, HD, Lowes, LOW.
Medical Appliances ….. Intuitive Surgical, ISRG,
Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, 4.1%,
Transportation, IYT, 3.9% ….. Air Transportation Group, ATSG, Genesee & Wyoming RR, GWR,
Networking, IGN, 3.6% .…. EMC Corp, EMC, Network Appliance, NTAP,
Wall Street Financial Services, IYG, 3.3% ….. T. Rowe Price, TROW.
Consumer Services, IYC, 3.0%
Russell 2000 Growth, IWO, 3.1%
Small Cap Revenue, RWJ, 2.9% … Morningstar, MORN, NewStar Financial, NEWS, World Acceptance, WRLD.
Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, $CYC, 2.8% … Deere, DE, United Technologies, UTX, PPG Industries, PPG, Dupont, DD, Goodyear Tire, GT. Eaton, ETN, Temple Inland, TIN,
Russell 2000, IWM, 2.8%
Financial, XLF, 2.8%
Insurance, KIE, 2.9... American Equity Investment Life, AEL,
Industrial, IYJ, 2.8% …. UTI Worldwide, UTIW, Belden, BDC, Caterpillar, CAT, Franklin Electric, FELE, Fastneal, FAST, Flow International, FLOW, Illinois Tool Works, ITW, Timken, TKR, Mettler Toledo Intl, MTD, Buckeye Technologies, BKI, Acuity Brands, ACI, TTM Technologies, TTMI,
Real Estate, IYR, 2.6% … Blackrock, BLK, Veritas, VTR, Equity Residential, EQR, SL Green Realty, SLG.
Banks, KBE, 2.6%
Semiconductors, XSD, 1.0%
The chart of XSD, IWO, IYR, IGN, and RZV shows Friday’s push higher; might this be the last of the rally?
China stocks fell on bank and credit tightening. Bloomberg reported: “China raised key interest rates for the third time since mid-October after growth accelerated and inflation stayed above 4% for a third month. The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.06% from 5.81%. The one-year deposit rate will rise to 3% from 2.75%. A jump in lending at the start of this year may have exacerbated price pressures by adding to an excess of cash in the fastest-growing major economy. Inflation may have climbed to as much as 6% in January… according to Daiwa Capital Markets.” They all fell lower: China All Caps, YAO, China Financials, CHIX, China Real Estate, TAO, China Small Caps, HAO, Focus Media Holding, FMCN, China Energy, CHIE, China Materials, CHIM,
I believe that the S&P Weekly, SPY weekly, with a close of 133 is cresting up into an Elliott Wave 2 High. And that the World Stocks Weekly, ACWI, with a close of 46.44 is cresting up into an Elliott Wave 2 High. Elliott Wave 3 Down is imminent.
The experience in the Pharmaceuticals, XPH, S&P Biotech, XBI, the Nasdaq Biotech, IBB, the Automobile Sector, DJUSAP, The Inflationary Four, Philippines, EPHE, Indonesia, IDX, Turkey, TUR, and Thailand, THD, and the Asia Tigers, South Korea, EWY, and Taiwan, EWT, are the canaries warning the investor to exit the stock market coal mine.
The Flattner ETF, FLAT, rose 1.2% on Friday. Perhaps, and I do say perhaps, it and US Treasuries will rise for a while, while stocks fall. But soon, both US Treasuries, EDV, and TLT, and IEF, are going to be trading lower with stocks: yes both will be going down together.
4) …. Wealth has come via leveraging up US Sovereign Debt
The 30 10 leverage curve is the inverse of the 10 30 Yield curve. The 30 10 US Sovereign Debt leverage curve, $TYX:$TNX, first started to deleverage with the first announcement of QE 2 at Jackson Hole in August, and then it completely deleveraged on the formal announcement in November. Investors over the years had ridden the leverage curve up by investing in the longer out 30 year US Government Bonds, EDV, and to a lesser degree the 10 Year US Government Bond, TLT. The more astute investors went with the great swing trade, that being investing in the Junior Gold Mining Stocks, GDXJ, and the Gold Mining Stocks, GDX, riding the leverage curve for all it could give; it was a prosperous ride.
Ben Bernanke’s QE 2 money-engineering brought a loss of debt seigniorage to the US Federal Reserve, as is seen in the falling value of EDV and TLT; and ruined investing in the leveraged HUI Precious metal mining stocks as well. This being seen in the ratio of the gold mining stocks to US Treasuries $HUI:$USB. The swing stocks lost value relative to gold, as is seen in GDXJ:GLD and GDX:GLD.
As gold, hit resistance and moved higher, so did the gold mining stocks, GDX, and the junior gold mining stocks, GDXJ. Will they continue higher with gold, or will they fall lower with stocks? I lean more to the latter. I think thqt the current swing in gold mining stocks is just about over. For these, it is fair to say they are moving up in a bear flag pattern. Coming exhaustion of quantitative easing will be the nail in the coffin for these stocks, while gold will go on to become the defacto sovereign currency and storehouse of investment wealth.
The fall in the 10 2 Yield Curve, $TYX:$UST2Y, is presented by some as evidence of renewed growth in the U.S. It also highlights that short term interest rates are going to rise in the very near future. They go on to relate that the start of a decline in the yield curve indicates new found strength in the economy. And they say that this flattening of the 10 2 yield curve occurs in the early to mid-portion of a bull market, and that ongoing upward asset prices can be expected for the S&P 500 into 2011 and 2012. I do not subscribe to that analysis. I see risk in investing long stocks coming from quantitative easing exhustion.
I see the weekly 30 10 leverage curve, $TYX:$TNX weekly, continuing to deleverage causing a loss of value in bonds; and I see quantitative easing exhaustion spreading to other stock asset sectors beyond gold stocks, with delveraging coming also from failure of traditional Japanese Yen carry trade and Swiss Franc carry trade investing, the US Federal Deficit, a municipal bond funding crisis, and the European sovereign debt and banking crisis.
Yes there are many outstanding threats to economic growth, from all these factors, yet the biggest threat is it the exhaustion of quantitative easing: Ben Bernanke’s “go juice” is like the high that comes from a soda, its just quick energy, that shocks the body and then debilitates the body.
In the very near future no one is going to be getting loans, no junk loans, nada, not even home loans; maybe a few car loans, but that will be it as the US Central Bank and the other central banks are loosing their seigniorage to the call of the bond vigilantes for higher interest rates. My summary thoughts on this topic is that interest rates have been rising not because the economy is improving but because the bond vigilantes call them higher. And prices of stocks and commodities have been rising because investors knew how damaging monetization of sovereign debt is, and they have jumped on board, that is they, have gone all in, with margin debt! There is a saying when they are all it, its best to get out, far out.
The utilities, XLU, got QE 2 cool aid, and they topped out in late January, 2011, and crested up into an Elliott Wave 2 this week. They one of the many sectors which will be turning lower. Best of utility class, Southern Co, SO, completed an Elliott Wave 5 up high just this week.
5) … The U.S. economy is a travesty of a mockery of a sham and has been since 2001, Charles Hugh Smith says.
Irregular Times relates the Charles Hugh Smith report: The U.S. economy has become increasingly dependent on asset bubbles, financial legerdemain, credit expansion, Federal borrowing and the manipulation of risk trades to maintain the illusion of “growth.” Compared to an economy based on organic demand and productive growth, the current U.S. economy is a travesty of a mockery of a sham, and has been since 2001.
And Doug Noland of Prudent reports Federal Reserve Credit jumped $30.9bn to a record $2.469 TN (14-wk gain of $189bn). Fed Credit was up $236bn from a year ago, or 10.6%.
6) … Clara Linnane of Reuters reports ECRI Reports Weekly Leading Economic Growth Gauge Climbs to 39-Week High
7) … Who will rise to the top economic post in Europe?
Simon Kennedy and James G. Neuger of Bloomberg report: “The campaign for the top job at the European Central Bank was thrown open as the sudden and unexplained withdrawal of German front-runner Axel Weber cleared the way for a slew of candidates to replace Jean-Claude Trichet. Central bankers Mario Draghi of Italy, Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch and Erkki Liikanen of Finland saw their chances of winning Europe’s top economic post rise as did Germany’s Klaus Regling, who runs the region’s bailout fund. Trichet’s non renewable eight-year term expires in October. ‘The top candidate is now out of the game,’ said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research
Will the individual named, eventually rise to be the global Banker, that is the Seignior, the one to complement the coming global Chancellor, the Sovereign?
The individual named will need to be a world banker knowledgeable in the operations of the ECB.
Mike Mish Shedlock writes Ex-Goldman Sachs Managing Director Mario Draghi is now recognized as the leading candidate to replace Jean-Claude Trichet ... Mario Draghi is a member of the Governing and General Councils of the European Central Bank and a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements. He is also governor for Italy on the Boards of Governors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Asian Development Bank. In April 2006 he was elected Chairman of the Financial Stability Forum, (within the Bank for International Settlements) which became Financial Stability Board in spring 2009. He graduated from the University of Rome, received his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and subsequently served as professor of economics at the University of Florence from 1981 to 1991. Prior to taking the helm of the Bank of Italy, he was vice chariman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International and a member of the firm-eide management committee (2002-2005). He was director general of the Italian Treasury (1991-2001), chairman of the European Economic and Financial Committee, a member of the G7 Deputies, and chairman of OECD Working Party 3. He was appointed chairman of the Italian Committee for Privatisations in 1993, and, from 1984 to 1990, was an executive director of the World Bank.
The Economist describes Mario Draghi as the International Regulator in article The Restless Italian: His first hands-on job in global finance came in 1984 as an executive director at the World Bank in Washington, DC. He returned home after six years and was put in charge of the treasury. Italy needed to control its public finances to squeeze into the euro. Mr Draghi led Italy’s privatisation programme and fostered a market for longer-dated government bonds, which helped reduce borrowing costs. He left in 2001 and went first to Harvard University, and then to Goldman Sachs in London and New York, before Italy called again. Admirers say Mr Draghi has the character and intellect to make the FSB a success. Those who have worked with him say he is calm, analytical and open-minded. He likes detail.