Financial market report for February 15, 2011
Gold and silver continued in breakout while commodities, the Australian Dollar, energy, basic material, agriculture, semiconductors and real estate REITS fell lower on quantitative easing exhaustion.
1) … Monetization of debt is inflationary and destructive.
Three years ago when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out the US Senate should not have allowed the US Federal Reserve Chief to embark on Quantitative Easing I, which of course led to QE 2.
The bond vigilantes called and sustained the Interest Rate on the 30 Year US Government Bond, $TYX, above 4% when QE 2 was announced, as the printing of money monetizes sovereign debt and depreciates not only the US Dollar, $USD, but hot money countries, and the gold driven South Africa.
And the bond vigilantes called and sustained the Interest Rate on the 10 Year US Government Bond, $TNX, above 3.3% on December 14, 2010.
Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing has debased the US Dollar, $USD, and the inflationary countries, that is those where quantitative easing has had greatest effect.
The chart of the 30 10 Leverage Curve, $TYX:$TNX, which is the inverse of the 10 30 Yield Curve, flattened on the first announcement of QE 2 in August stimulating a short selling run on the 30 Year US Government Bonds, EDV and the 10 Year US Treasuries, TLT. And in started to completely and absolutely flatten on the formal announcement of QE 2 in November. As a result of the higher interest rates, the US Dollar, $USD, sold off on January 13, 2011, as monetization of debt quantitative easing has begun to deflate the global liqudity and invesment bubble.
Various currencies and their country sell off dates are presented below:
the Indonesian Rupiah … with IDX falling in early 2011.
the Turkish New Lira … with TUR falling in early November, 2010.
the Philippine Peso, rose beginning August 10, 2010 … with EPHE falling in early November 2010 and then again in early 2011.
the Thai Baht, THB, rose beginning October 15, 2010 … with THD falling in early 2011.
the Chilean Peso, CLP, fell beginning December 1, 2010 … with ECH falling in early 2011.
the Indian Rupe, ICN, fell beginning November 8, 2010 … with India, INP, falling in early November 2010 and in early 2011.
the New Zealand Dollar, BNZ, fell beginning November 8, 2010 ... with New Zealand, ENZL, falling February 9, 2010.
the Chinese Yuan, CYB, fell beginning October 15, 2010 … with CAF and YAO falling in early November and on January 20, 2011.
the South African Rand, SZR, fell beginning February 3, 2010 … with EZA falling in early 2011.
the Brazil Real, BZF, has not as of yet fallen lower … with EWZ falling in 2011 and BRAF falling on November 8, 2010 and then again in early 2011.
The chart of Turkey, TUR, together with the Phillippines, EPHE, and India, INP, and China, YAO, … TUR, EPHE, INP, and YAO, communicates quantitative easing exhaustion has come first with intensity to Turkey, the Phillippines, India, and China. China Central Bank tightening, and Brazil Central Bank tightening has complemented quantitative easing exhaustion as well, to cause disinvestment from stocks.
And when all these countries mentioned are presented, chart shows Turkey,TUR, the Phillippines, EPHE, India, INP, China, YAO, Chile, ECH, Indonesia, IDX,and Brazil, EWZ, to have experienced the most quantitative easing exhaustion … TUR, EPHE, INP, YAO, ECH, IDX, and EWZ
These countries are the former neoliberal Milton Friedman free to choose floating currency regime leaders involved in destroying investment wealth in the Emerging Markets, EEM, beginning in 2011.
Sectors falling lower on quantative easing exhaustion include:
Coal, KOL, with Arch Coal, ACI, and ANR Resources, ANR, faling lowel
Nasdaq Biotechnology, IBB,
S&P Biotechnology, XBI,
Las Vegas Sands, LVS,
Brazil Financials, BRAF,
Gold Mining Stocks, GDX, but has recovered with the rise in gold beginning in February 2011.
Manufactured Housing, CVCO,
Dow Jones U.S. Automobiles & Parts Sector, ^DJUSAP beginning December 13, 2010 when the currency traders seized control of the Interest rate on the 10 Year US Government Bond, $TNX.
The overwhelming evidence here is that it is NOT traditional debt deflation, that is currency deflation, that is causing the sell off of stocks, but rather the failure of quantitative easing which is causing disinvestment from stocks.
In fact it is the huge US Deficit and purchases of US Treasuries with the printing of US Dollars out of thin air that is now turning toxic and deleveraging investment globally.
2) … Energy, basic material, agriculture, semiconductor and real estate REITS fell lower on quantitative easing exhaustion causing world shares to turn lower.
World Shares, VT, traded down 0.2%.
Energy shares, DIG, traded 2.1%, … and XLE, 1.0%, … and XLES 1.2% lower.
Energy giant Exxon Mobil, XOM, manifested a bearish harami and lost 2.3%; and Natural Gas Leader, Chesapeake Energy, CHK, traded 2.6% lower.
Energy Service, IEZ, traded 0.8% … and OIH, traded 0.8% lower.
Energy Services Company, Weatherford Intl, WFT, manifested bearish engulfing and lost 2.2%. This company is a poster example of the inflation in stocks that accompanied the announcement of QE2 both at Jackson Hole and in the November 2010 FOMC Meeting Announcement
Semiconductor shares, USD, -1.5%, and XSD, -0.9%
Russell 2000 Shares, URTY, -1.8%,
Russell 2000 leader Advertising Company, Decker Outdoor Advertising, DECK, -2.2%,
Russell 2000 leader Long Term Health Care Facility, Sun Rise Living, SRZ ,-8.1%.
Basic Materials, UYM, -1.3%,
Networking, IGN, -1.4%.
Network Appliance, NTAP, -2.0% and EMC Corp, EMC, -1.3%.
Agricultural shares, MOO, -2.2%. and Fertilizer manufacturers, POT, -3.3% and, MOS, -4.7%
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Agriculture Industry Component, Deere, DE, -1.2%
Agriculture company Monsanto, MON, -4.8%
Copper Miners, COPX, -1.4%
Small Cap Information Technology, XLKS, -1.3%
Retail REIT, Gilmcher Realty Trust, GRT.-1.2%
Industrial REIT, Extra Space Storage, EXR, -2.5%
Residential REIT, Post Properties, PPS, -1.9%
Hotel And Motel REIT, FelCor Lodging Trust, FCH, -1.3%
Small Cap Pure Value, RZV, -1.1%
Semiconductor equipment manufacturer, Kulicke and Soffa Industries, KLIC fell lower; it makes sense to see strong deleveraging coming first to the manufacturer of semiconductor equipment before the actual semiconductor companies themselves. Semiconductors trading lower included ATML, -2.4%, CEVA,-5.6%, ENTG -3.8%, SNDK, -2.8%, NVDA, -2.4%, SWKS, -1.7%, AMAT, -0.2%, CY, -3.7%. Of important note, a quantitative easing wave of disinvestment swept through Taiwan Semiconductors, TSM, beginning six trading days ago on February 9, 2010; and took this Taiwan based manufacturer of semiconductors lower. Quantitative easing disinvestment came first to the Asia Tigers, that being Taiwan and South Korea, because they are at the epicenter of hot money flows; these countries have the name Asian Tigers for a reason.
Now, QE disinvestment has started in the United States, and is reflected in today’s loss of value in the semiconductors as the Apple Ecosystem is loosing its seigniorage. And is reflected in the loss of value in the energy shares on falling of oil prices. And is reflected in the loss of value in basic material shares on falling base material prices. And is reflected in the loss of value in the agricultural industry stocks on falling agricultural commodity prices. QE 2 brought massive inflation in oil, base metals and agricultural commodity prices. Quantitative easing exhaustion caused today’s lower prices in energy, basic material, agricultural, consumer, homebuilding, automobile, networking, semiconductor, and real estate REIT stocks.
Home builders, ITB, -1.0%,
Mortgage REITS, REM, traded 1.1% lower and Mortgage Finance: iStar Financial, SFI, 1.6%
Broadcast and TV Sector, Sirius XM Radio, SIRI, broke fractically lower and fell 7.9% lower; and Liberty Media Holding, LCAPA, fell 3.4% lower.
Consumer Services and Restaurant leader, Chipotle Mexican Grill, CMG, manifested a bearish doji at the top of an ascending wedge and traded 2.7% lower.
Consumer Discretionary, Drug Related Products Manufacturer, Herbalife, HLF, fell 2.2% from an ascending wedge to enter an Elliott Wave 3 Down. This linchpin mid-cap company’s fall signals a market turn for the mid cap stocks.
Consumer Services Rendering Company, Darling, DAR, lost 2.1%
Small Cap Consumer Discretionary Stocks, XLYS, traded 1.0% lower
Solar Energy Manufacturer GT Solar, SOLR, fell 3.5% lower.
Global Industrial Metal Miner Headwaters, HW, traded 1.0% lower.
Latin America Leading Cement Company, Cemex, CX, fell 2.6% lower.
Steel Industry American Rail Industries, ARII traded 1.2% lower.
Metal Manufacturing Company Park-Ohio Holdings, PKOH, traded lower 1.4%
Business Service Leader And Equipment Rental Company, United Rentals, URI, traded 2.4% lower.
Computer Peripheral Manufacturer, Kemet, KMT, traded 1.9% lower
Computer Disk Drive Manufacturer, Western Digital, WDC, traded 1.4% lower
Office Supplies Manufacturer, Deluxe, DLX traded 1.4% lower.
Retailer Bed Bath and Beyond, BBBY traded 0.9% lower.
Communications Equipment Manufacturer Polycom, PLCM, traded 2.9% lower.
Air Transport Services Group, ATSG, manifested a bearish harami at the top of an ascending wedge loosing 1.6%.
Annaly Capital Management, NLY, a Small Cap Revenue Firm, RWJ, specializing in securitization of US Government investments gapped down 3..7% lower; chart watchers could see the fall coming as the investment had made three recent tops. Annaly Capital Management has risen from basically 13 to 18 with the QE recovery by servicing mortgages. An inquiring mind asks, Is there a future for this company in Mr. Obama’s future? Is this REIT going to be a good short seller?
Small Cap Revenue Leader World Acceptance, WRLD, traded 3.1% lower.
Automobile sector stocks falling lower include American Axle, AXL, -1.7%, Dana Holding, DAN, -2.3%, AutoLiv, ALV, 1.5%, Tenneco Automotive, TEN, 1.2% and TRW Automotive Holdings, TRW, -0.9%.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Building Supply Component, Masco, MAS, fell 9.2% lower; this amount of loss is typical of what happens when stocks turn lower at a market top and communicates strongly that one should either be in gold or silver or invested short the market in shares that have not yet fallen lower.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Industrial Component, Eaton, ETN traded 1.6%.lower.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Basic Materials Component, Alcoa Aluminum, AA, lost 1.1%
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Basic Material Component, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, FCX, manifested a bearish harami loosing 2.6%.
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Transportation Component, Ryder, R, lost 1.1%
Truck manufacturer Navistar, NAV, lost 1.2%
Technology Leader Active Power, ACPW, lost 7.1%
Industrial MRO Services Company, DXP Enterprises, DXPE, lost 2.5%
Small Cap Industrial Company, Rogers Corp, ROG, lost 2.3%.
Wind Energy, FAN, gave way, and sold off 1.4% in an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 Down.
The Yen, FXY, fell 1.6% lower today February 15, 2011, to the edge of a massive head and shoulders pattern. Will it move higher or will it fall lower before other currencies?
The USD/JPY has been rising since February 1, 2011, as the Yen, FXY, has really taken a tumble. The JYN is the inverse of the USDJPY; it fell from an Elliott Wave 5 high on the announcement of QE 2 and entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down in early February 2011.
The optimized carry ETN, ICI, peaked in an Elliott Wave 5 up with the announcement of QE 2 and entered 3 an Elliott Wave 3 sell off in late January 2011.
The growth and expansion cycle is over as the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, $CYC:$INDU, has crested up into an Elliott Wave 2 high, and is about to commence into an Elliott Wave 3 Down, communicating that investors are deleveraging from the stocks that are the leaders in economic growth and expansion.
The currency leverage curve, the ratio of the small cap value shares relative to the small cap growth shares, RZV:RZG, shows a 0.5% fall lower in its channel today, communicating that debt deflation is underway again just as it was on April 26, 2010. The most recent fall in this relationship was the January 2011 fall in the emerging market currencies, CEW, and the emerging markets, EEM.
Chart of emerging market currencies, CEW.
3) … Exhaustion of quantitative easing means that competitive currency devaluation is strongly underway.
Today's 1.1% loss of value in basic material stocks, XLB, and associated loss of value in Australian mining company, BHP Billiton, BHP, caused Australian bank, Westpac Banking, WBK, Australia, EWA, the Australia Small Caps, KROO, all to trade lower, as the Australian Dollar, FXA, fell to 50 day moving average support. China is vowing to punish companies whose prices they find to be inflationary; will this policy cause strong disinvestment out of the Australian Dollar and Australian Companies? Of note, Australia fell from an Elliott Wave 5 high on February 9, 2011.
Russia, RSX, traded down 0.9%.
Sweden, EWD, traded down, as the Swedish Krona, FXS, fell to 50 day moving average support.
Mexico, EWW, traded lower, as the Mexico Peso, FXM, fell towards its 50 day moving average.
New Zealand, ENZL, traded lower on a falling New Zealand Dollar, BNZ, which fell below 50 day moving average support. New Zealand fell into an Elliott Wave 3 Down on February 9, 2011. In looking at New Zealand and its currency, one can rightly conclude that quantitative easing exhaustion commenced with the formal announcement of QE2, and that this induced a sell off in the New Zealand Dollar, which commenced debt deflation, that is currency deflation, in the New Zealand shares. Thus, first came QE exhaustion, then came currency deflation, then came stock market deflation.
In other words, it was failure of the US Central Bank seigniorage, that induced stock market failure in the New Zealand shares. The loss of debt sovereignty, that is sovereign debt seigniorage by the US Federal Reserve, because of its policy of printing money to buy US Treasuries, not only inflated commodities, DJP, which today turned lower, but delveraged investment out of the New Zealand shares upon formal announcement of easing in November. The deleveraging and dislocation of investment is more pronounced in the Emerging Market, EEM, countries of the Philippines, EPHE, Thailand, THD, Indonesia, IDX, Turkey, TUR, and Chile, ECH than in New Zealand.
The US Federal Reserve policy of Quantitative Easing means termination of the neoliberal Milton Friedman Free To Choose Floating Currency Regime.
The Fed’s policies are damaging to investment globally. I believe that out of the dislocations of quantitative easing, competitive currency devaluations at the hands of the currency traders, as well as the unresolved sovereign debt crisis in Europe, Gotterdammerung, that is an investment flameout, is coming. And from the ashes, a Chancellor, a Sovereign, and a Banker, a Seignior, will arise to establish order and a new seigniorage. Daniela Schwarzer, head of the European Integration research unit at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP, relates in Triple Crisis that on March 24/25, all eyes, (in particular those of market actors) will be on the 27 Heads of State and Government who will tackle important questions on Economic Governance and the future architecture of the Euro area.
New Zealand, ENZL,
New Zealand Dollar, BNZ,
4) … Commodities fell lower on waining quantitative easing strength.
Commodities, DJP, -0.8%, and US Commodities, USCI, -0.9%
Oil, $WTIC, fell lower with Oil, USO, -1.4%, UCO, -3.0% and BNO, -1.4%
Given the fall in oil prices, energy stock prices are terrifically over valued. Energy stock price relative to oil, XLE:USO, shows a massive parabolic rise and a lollipop hanging man candlestick; this represents strong selling pressure and suggests short selling. I do not engage in short selling as I am invested in and have taken possess of gold bullion.
Food commodities, FUD, -2.0%, 200% of Agriculture Commodities, DAG, -3.6% Agriculture Commodities, JJA, -1.5%, manifested bearish engulfing. driven so by Grains, GRU, -2.4% and Corn, CORN, -1.4%.
Base Metals, DBB, -1.6% with Aluminum, JJU, -0.7% and Copper, JJC, -2.2%. The charts of the base metals show the inflation wave that came from QE2; the rise in base metal prices had really little to do with supply and demand; but rather speculation that was fueled by liquidity coming from the US Central Bank policy of quantitative easing.
5) …. Bonds are in recovery … but for how long is the question.
Bonds, BND, are in recovery, but for how much longer is any one's guess. Chart shows that bonds broke down with the announcement of QE 2.
The Interest Rate on the 10 Year Note, $TYX, shows a dark filled harami which indicates some hesitancy for continuing higher rates. Will this benchmark interest rate fall or will it rise? Will bonds, BND, rise in value to 79.75? or 80.00? or 80.25? I do not know,
I do know stocks will be falling lower. Might a fall in stocks fuel a brief rally in US Treasuries and Bonds? I do not know.
I do agree with Ambrose Evans Pritchard who relates Obama tests bond markets with mega-deficits.
The bonds, BND, have entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down, stocks are going to be falling from an Elliott Wave Crest 2 and falling into an Elliott Wave 3 Down: both bonds and stocks will be falling lower. And gold will be going higher.
5) .... Precious metals, JJP, continued in break out.
Chart shows that the Precious metals, JJP, Gold, GLD, and Silver, SLV, continued in its brake out as investors rotated out of stocks and currencies seeking a safe haven investment from the dwindling capability of quantitative easing.
6) … In today’s news
OpenEurope relates FT Deutschland reports that rating agency Moody’s is about to conduct a thorough review of the credit rating assigned to banks and financial institutions. This could have serious consequences for many state assisted institutions, as the review will only take into account the institutions’ own financial strength, which could lead to downgrades for many banks around Europe.
Open Europe relates Mail on Sunday reports that Britain’s only specialist nettle beer family brewery may be forced to close because of EU rules stating that it does not qualify as a beer for tax purposes since it does not contain malt. As a result, the brewery may face a bill of almost £10,000 in backdated duty because the drink now falls within a higher tax band.
Andrew Taylor of the Associated Press writes F-35 engine battle breaks out on GOP spending bill: The Obama administration's campaign against a costly alternative engine for the Pentagon's next-generation fighter jet faces a critical vote in the GOP-controlled House, its fate to be decided by more than 90 freshmen lawmakers who previously haven't had to choose sides between two major defense companies.
The expected vote Wednesday comes as the House enters its second day of debate on a $1.2 trillion spending bill that would wrap up the unfinished business lawmakers inherited after last year's collapse of the budget process. That includes $1.03 trillion for agency operating budgets that need annual approval by Congress and $158 billion for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The engine battle pits Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates — who say the engine would waste almost $3 billion over the next few years — against GOP leaders like House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, whose state is a chief beneficiary. The spending measure includes $450 million for the engine, which would be built by the General Electric Co. and Rolls-Royce in Ohio, Indiana and other states.
On the other side are lawmakers from Connecticut, where the main F-35 fighter engine is built by Pratt & Whitney, as well memberd Defense Secretary Robert s from Florida, Texas and other states.
The F-35 engine vote presents 87 GOP freshmen — infused with a fervor to cut spending — with a dilemma: Vote with the Obama administration to cut spending now or side with supporters of the alternative engine, who argue that it would save money by injecting competition into the F-35 program, the costliest weapons program in Defense Department history.
"We have to step forward, we have to cut back on areas, and this is an area that the secretary of defense said we need to cut back on," freshman Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill., said.
The engine battle divides along regional rather than party lines, in contrast to the partisan warfare on the underlying bill, which sharply cuts domestic programs and foreign aid and earned a veto threat from the White House budget office and a warning from President Barack Obama against unwise cuts "that could endanger the recovery."
Debate on the bill is expected to take all week and the House worked late into Tuesday night. A frosty reception awaits the bill in the Democratic-controlled Senate, which won't take up its version until next month. So it'll require passage of a separate short-term government funding bill by March 4 to prevent a government shutdown that neither side says it wants.
The GOP bill, separate from the 2012 budget Obama unveiled on Monday, covers spending for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30.
The GOP legislation would make sweeping cuts to domestic programs ranging from education and science to agriculture and the Peace Corps. It slashes the Environmental Protection Agency, a favorite target of Republicans, by 29 percent from last year's levels, and would eliminate federal funding for public broadcasting, the AmeriCorps national service program, police hiring grants and family planning programs unpopular with conservatives.
The Food and Drug Administration budget would decline by 10 percent, and spending also would fall by 10 percent for a food program for pregnant women and mothers and their children.
The cuts are all the more dramatic because they would be shoehorned into the last half of the budget year that started Oct. 1.
The bill marks the first significant attack on federal deficits by Republicans elected last fall with the support of smaller-government tea party activists.
The measure came to the floor just a day after Obama unveiled his budget for next year and is merely a first round in what looms as a politically defining struggle that soon will expand to encompass Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the massive government programs that provide benefits directly to tens of millions of people.
"We know we can't balance this budget simply by reducing non-security, non defense spending," said Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, referring to the 359-page bill that would cut $61 billion from domestic programs.
The measure is sweeping in its scope, cutting spending from literally hundreds of domestic budget accounts and eliminating many others. At the same time, the Pentagon budget would be increased by almost 2 percent from current levels.
Charts show quantitative easing is failing … A bear market in stocks has commenced.
World stocks, ACWI, and manifested a spinning doji for the second today. And for good reason as the seigniorage, that is the moneyness, afforded by quantitative easing has maxed out as is seen in the chart of world stocks relative to the 10 year US government note, VT:TLT.
Exhaustion of quantitative easing caused the world to enter into into the Age of Deleveraging on February 9, 2010, with world stocks, and Junk Bonds falling lower in value. World stocks, VT, fell from a rally high of 49.80 and Junk Bonds, JNK, fell from a rally high of 40.63 . The investment bubble that began in the late 1940s has been pricked. The neoliberal Milton Friedman Free To Choose floating currency regime is history. With the fall lower of Junk Bonds, JNK, the end of credit as we have known it has commenced. The world entered into Kondratieff Winter on February 9, 2011.
On February 11, 2011, the S&P, SPY, has likely crested out in an Elliott Wave 2 high at 133.43, and will be entering an Elliott Wave 3 Down, as is seen in the S&P Weekly, SPY Weekly,
On February 9, 2011, the world stocks, ACWI, has likely crested out in an Elliott Wave 2 high at 48.69, and will likely be entering an Elliott Wave 3 Down, as is seen in the world stocks weekly, ACWI Weekly.
Value investing is really value less; that it is of limited value since all stocks, globally, will be going lower. The only thing value investing might afford is to identify the stocks which will suffer the least rate of decline.
Many of the companies and ETFs listed in this article can be sold short. Precious metals, JPP, hs been rising on the awareness that exhausting quantitative easing will create an enduring demand for hard metals. Personally, I am invested in and have taken possession of gold bullion. I do not have a brokerage account as I am concerned that during a severe downturn one may not have access to one’s funds. I am more concerned about the return of my investment, than I am about the return on my investment.
The chart of gold relative to the Australian Dollar, GLD:FXA, has risen since February 1, 2011, establishing gold to be the sovereign global currency and storehouse of investment value. The seigniorage of the worlds major currencies, DBV, failed on February, 9, 2011. And the seigniorage of the emerging market currencies, CEW, failed in early January, 2011. All currencies failed to be money good on exhausting quantitative easing.
The world is passed from The Age of Leverage characterised by sovereign sovereign debt expansion, currency inflation, credit liquidity, stability, stock and junk bond inflation, economic growth and expansion and prosperity … and passing into The Age of Deleveraging characterised by failure of sovereign debt, currency deflation, credit ill-liquidity, instability, stock and junk bond deflation, economic contraction and austerity.
Anticipation of and the actual implementation of Ben Bernakes’s QE2 provided seigniorage, that is moneyness, to both world stocks, VT, and junk bonds, JNK, worldwide as is seen in the chart of each.
But now with the end of earning seasons, QE 2 has exhausted, with both world stocks and junk bond turning lower in value. Increasing good earnings can no longer support stocks as sovereign debt seigniorage has failed. Over time it will become apparent that the only “money good” is found in gold, silver.