We made it to the Promised Land!
In spite of all the doom and gloom spewed by Bears of every stripe and color, I, for almost 2 years have been repeating, ad nauseum, the mantra that this bull market cannot die because the NASDAQ needs to make a new all-time high...(hey, it rhymes pretty well too!)
Well, guess what? It eventually happened.
It took f-o-r-e-v-e-r, but the blessed day finally came...and today(!), after 15 years, 3 months and 8 days, the NASDAQ did exactly what I had been insisting on my blog for 2 years: It took out its previous all-time high of 5,132.52 set intraday on March 10, 2000. To keep things interesting and cute, the Nasdaq closed today's session at 5,132.95, just 0.43 point higher from its previous intra-day high.
A few weeks ago, William, who goes by the very cool screen name, Volatilis, and is a regular reader of my blog, was kind enough to congratulate me on my prediction when the NASDAQ closed its regular session at a new all-time closing high...I purposely did not acknowledge his congrats because I did not feel that I was deserving of it then...for me, true Nirvana was only going to be achieved when the new all-time high milestone was reached...
Well, since the NASDAQ has finally passed my target today, I can now accept William's gracious congratulations and want to sincerely thank him for his acknowledgement.
One of the reasons I never watch CNBC is because I don't want to drown in a sea of noise and negativity...most of the folks who come on that station are either charlatans, or they have some kind of an agenda: either they want to sell their service(s), and a few, of the more unscrupulous variety, are hoping to manipulate the market in one of the stock(s) they hold a position in...
Here on my blog, I have no agenda...this is my little corner in Cyberspace where I'm able to share my knowledge and experience with others; and make predictions on market direction and share my stock picks, good, bad or outright ugly....I have made some good calls and a few real horrible ones...but all in all, my overall record, I believe, has been pretty decent...
Of my good calls, I am most proud of i) my Nasdaq prediction, ii) calling the bottom on Apple two weeks before Carl Icahn made his now famous announcement of taking a large stake in the company, iii) taking my cue from billionaire fund manager and perennial bull, David Tepper's much publicized bearish market call on CNBC and taking a contrarian position and correctly calling the end of the NASDAQ correction and the start of a new uptrend on May 26th, 2014, iv) of course my completely transparent experiment of taking $10,000 and turning it into $1,074,475.06, a 10,000% gain, in exactly 6 months by only playing the options game and posting here on my blog, each and every trade in real-time and more importantly, publicly announcing my intention(s) before executing the trade, and v) before I started this blog, I, under the moniker, SafeList.com, literally went into a bear's den here on Seeking Alpha in 2010, metaphorically speaking of course, and, with the DOW tumbling below 10,000 made a pretty gutsy prediction, bullish of course, and then, about 6 months later, went back to that same bear's den and to the consternation of the resident bears made an even bolder prediction: tinyurl.com/ot69k6w
Of my most embarrassing calls that landed me in my family's dog house for extended periods of time, two that glaringly stand out include my disastrous bet on GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) which unexpectedly imploded last year after declaring bankruptcy, literally in the middle of the trading day; and my other bad call was when I made a sizable bet on Rene Solar (NYSE:SOL), believing it to be an extremely undervalued Chinese solar company, and at the end of the day, the only thing that was under-valued was the dollar size of my portfolio when the company executed horribly, its stock price went straight into the gutter along with my CALL options and forced me to eat humble pie, yet again...
In any case, now that the NASDAQ has made a new, all-time high, where will the markets go from here?
Prediction: If you are a bear and expecting the NASDAQ to just rollover and start rolling down then I'm afraid I have more bad news for you...But if you're a bull, then rejoice, because I believe that the Index it will continue to march higher and make numerous new all-time highs with occasional dips along the way, but the trend is still up. Heck, it took the Index more than 15 years to achieve this very elusive milestone and it aint gonna let go of its state of blissful euphoria for a number of weeks and possibly even a few months, before taking a breather...so expect multiple all-time highs between now and the end of the year...
P.S. For those new to my blog, here are a few links to a number of posts over the last 2 years when I was consistently pounding the table, arguing that that there was still a lot of bull left in the market:
Disclosure: I am/we are long EXAS, HALO, RMTI, QQQ, XON, ZIOP.