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AUD Toying with Key Resistance Levels

For those watching, the persistent rise of the Australian dollar (NYSEARCA:AUD) was given impetus recently by soaring commodity prices. With Australia’s economy linked with the price of precious metals, the climb in Gold and Silver has been met by a rise in the Aussie as well.

What is interesting to note is where the Aussie has reached against a number of its currency rivals. Three pairs stand out in particular: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, and AUD/CHF (see charts below).

These pairs are all testing price parity (the AUD/CHF is not necessarily testing it, but is close enough to warrant interest). Both the AUD/USD and AUD/CAD reached this price mark in October 2010 and have been flirting with this level ever since. The AUD/CHF reached it much sooner, but has since fallen below parity due to the Swiss franc’s rising appeal over the second half of 2010.

What is worth noting for the first two – but not necessarily the third – is that parity against the USD and CAD represents a price range which has historically lacked sufficiently sustainable support. The question then to ask is, Can the AUD hold its gains against these monetary giants?

The CAD is linked with Crude Oil prices which makes its decline versus the AUD somewhat intriguing. The fundamental support doesn’t appear as strongly in that pair, but the AUD is rising relatively faster regardless.

Making a speculative assessment, it seems the AUD is bouncing within a price range against a few of its primary rivals that has been historically difficult to break beyond. So long as precious metals continue to climb, which appears a given in today’s market, the AUD should continue to find support.

This makes it interesting to wonder why its value hasn’t climbed well beyond parity against these currencies. It may be even more interesting to ask about what forces are holding it back.

AUD/USD - Weekly Chart

AUD/CAD - Weekly Chart

AUD/CHF - Weekly Chart

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.