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Hal's Thoughts, 6/17/12

This past week, I again noted Hal's take on things in real-time on stocktalks, so I'll spare you a wholly boring replay like I posted last week. Just check out recent stocktalks if you are interested.

There have been no significant changes in positions, and overall weightings are only slightly changed since last week: 59% equities, 20% municipal bonds (this includes ETF's and individual bonds), 6% miscellaneous bonds (mostly JMT, FAX and NBB, no treasuries), and 15% cash. The 10 biggest positions are also the same. In order of size, they are: BMY, XOM, PFI, VOD, INTC, ABT, T, COP, NUV, and EIX.

Hal sees some potential for es-mini futures to work their way a little higher this coming week, though the market may need to retrace a bit (short-term) to get a running start in an effort the get there. Those potential upside targets that may become "high probability minimums" are currently around ESU12 1352, which translates to SPX 1358.50.

In the final minutes of trading on Friday, the market hit a cluster of intermediate term high probability upside targets. This defines the point above which Hal has eyes wide open for indications of a potential short or intermediate term reversal. But at Friday's close, Hal decided to maintain the existing positioning.

Hal doesn't react to news, interpretations of news, or anticipated news. He is again blissfully unaware of this weekend's events in Greece. He does, however, know what EURUSD and European markets are doing. As you can infer from postings on stocktalks, he assesses things minute by minute, day by day. He will be up all night monitoring the es-mini overnight session, and if given the opportunity, he'll interrupt my sleep.