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Short-term Direction

It seems like a consensus has been reached, or at least in the various financial media that I've seen, among market participants that a "bottom" has been put into the market. Would guess that, even after today's monster move up, market will continue to drift higher in the short-term. However, I think most pundits are completely underestimating the adverse effect that unemployment, and state and local governments will combine to inflict on the market. We're at double digit unemployment (a figure that is likely underreported because of the discouraged jobseekers) and 20% underemployment. In addition, the full brunt of years of fiscal irresponsibility of the state and local governments is about to come roaring in, meaning salary and benefit cuts and additional job losses. Combining that with a toxic political climate that seems to prohibit any kind of additional stimulus and extremely cautious business climate, I see the US entering the fall with no employment momentum, states wielding the meet cleaver on their bloated bureaucracies and no relief in sight. Can easily see another drop in the fall akin to two years ago when the realization sets in that the calvary ain't coming.