As difficult it is to imagine how much longer Eurozone stocks can rally in the face of unbelievable youth unemployment, it's equally mind boggling how little investment media attention is given to the rapidly degenerating situation in the Middle East. Violence is spreading from Syria into Lebanon as Russian arms flow to Assad's forces. The French claim to have proof of Sarin gas usage by the same government that Russia is supporting. Israel watches warily, perhaps planning for the next missile strike. In Iraq, a day doesn't pass when there are tens of bombing victims as hatred between Sunnis and Shiites escalates. Meanwhile, Iran plays its usual cat and mouse game with nuclear inspectors. Which red line crossing will require US intervention?, Iranian nuclear capability or proof of Syrian government Sarin use? Any western military involvement beyond supplying arms should trigger significantly higher Brent prices. If that happened, will the myth of US energy independence keep WTI below $100? I'm not sure how much the possibility of a Middle East meltdown factored into Andy Hall's investment in Brent 2015 contracts but the world seems to be getting more dangerous every day. With record high debt levels and seemingly endless money printing programs across the globe, the world economy cannot afford rising oil prices. More directly, the energy dependent and economically battered Eurozone cannot afford rising Brent prices. Short Europe through EPV or puts on an ETF and go long oil.
Disclosure: I am long EPV.