The S&P 500 index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the long-term uptrend.
Market behavior has tracked the bullish short-term scenario that we outlined early last week and it is now likely that the low on June 24 was a short-term cycle low (STCL) and not a beta low (BL). Additionally, this scenario change negates the confirmed transition to a bearish translation in late June and suggests that cycle translation remains in question.
At a current duration of 52 months, the bull market from 2009 is long overdue for termination and the latest cyclical top could form at any time.
The recent weekly close below support at the lower boundary of the power uptrend from late 2012 was the first meaningful technical breakdown since the current intermediate-term uptrend began in 2011.
The character of the developing short-term cycle will provide the next assessment of bull market health, so it will be important to monitor price behavior closely during the next several weeks.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.