The S&P 500 index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a return to previous highs of the long-term uptrend.
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Market behavior has tracked the bullish short-term scenario that we outlined early last week and it is now likely that the low on June 24 was a short-term cycle low (STCL) and not a beta low (BL). Additionally, this scenario change negates the confirmed transition to a bearish translation in late June and suggests that cycle translation remains in question.
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At a current duration of 52 months, the bull market from 2009 is long overdue for termination and the latest cyclical top could form at any time.
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The recent weekly close below support at the lower boundary of the power uptrend from late 2012 was the first meaningful technical breakdown since the current intermediate-term uptrend began in 2011.
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The character of the developing short-term cycle will provide the next assessment of bull market health, so it will be important to monitor price behavior closely during the next several weeks.
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Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.