The 10-year Treasury note yield rebounded from moderate early losses to close slightly higher today, continuing a test of congestion support in the 2.00% area. Yields have moved sideways during the last two weeks following the sharp decline at the end of October. Although the congestion support near 2.00% has yet to be meaningfully violated, the sideways consolidation formation has developed a bearish character that favors a continuation of the decline.
With respect to cycle analysis, the rebound during the last three sessions confirms that the Alpha Low (NYSE:AL) of the current cycle formed on November 9 as predicted by the cycle low signal that was generated on November 10.
The failure to rebound meaningfully off of the AL is another bearish sign that favors a return to the previous lows of the long-term downtrend. We will identify the key developments as they occur in our market forecasts and signal notifications available to subscribers.
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