AUD/USD: Pull-Back From Resistance
The aussie's rebound hit combined resistance at 1.0345 and started to fall again. It is possible it could be resuming its down-trend. A decisive break below the key 1.0295 lows at the base of the rising channel which it has been moving in would be required in order to signal a continuation lower, with the 1.0250 level then in sight and possibly the 1.0220 lows thereafter. Alternatively if it finds support at the current 1.0295 level at the base of the channel it could rebound higher. The current move down is steep and strong, favouring a break but a rebound is also a possibility because the short-term up-trend is established, and would see the pair move up to retest the 50-day at 1.0345 again.
EUR/USD: Surprise Rebound
The break of the H&S neckline yesterday failed to to follow-through to the downside. Instead the pair printed a strong bullish hammer on the hourly chart before beginning to rise. This led to a rally to above the trend-line connecting head and right-shoulder indicating the H&S had failed. Today the pair has been correcting back down again, however, and it will probably go lower. There is support at 1.3015 from the trend-line, and break of that and the 1.3010 lows would signal a probable continuation lower to the 1.2960 range lows. Alternatively, a recovery and extension higher is also possible, with a decisive break above 1.3060 highs signalling a move up to the 1.3130 highs.
GBP/USD: Spike Higher
The GBP/USD pair has surged up on stronger-than-expected data this morning. It is rising within a channel and it will probably continue higher until it reaches resistance from the upper channel line at around 1.5530. It may even continue up to the 50-day MA eventually after the break of the major down-trend-line yielded an upside target of 1.5700. For downside to gather momentum I'd want to see a rapid retracement of the spike and break below 1.5350, with a target at the lower channel line at around 1.5250.
Analysis By: Joaquin Monfort, Forex4you Analyst
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